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AI Trends Journal — NHL

An AI trend is a model signal that does not meet every requirement of an official pick: goalies not yet confirmed, a read not validated by our analyst, a probability outside the zone where our model is reliable, or a market under observation (the 1st period). We publish them all, recorded before the game, and settle them against the score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: it lets anyone check, in real conditions, that our official thresholds sit in the right place.

Why isn't a trend an official pick?

Goalies

No official pick is taken until both goalies are confirmed. A model signal before that confirmation stays a trend.

Moneyline

Official only when our analyst validates the model's read and the stated probability stays below 70%: above that, our tracking shows the model overrates its chances. Other signals stay trends.

Total goals

Official after our analyst's validation, with both goalies confirmed. Weak or unvalidated signals stay trends.

1st period

Market under observation since October 2026: no official pick, every read is published here as a trend.

Per-market summary — settled trends

How to read this table: it only shows trends (never our official picks, tracked on the track record). A winning trend does not mean it should have been played: it had not cleared our thresholds. This journal exists to verify, over time, that our thresholds sit in the right place — in both directions.

Market	Settled trends	Record	Hit rate	Units
Moneyline	664	321W-343L	48.3%	-28.5 u
Total goals	701	321W-337L	48.8%	-39.0 u
1st-period total	24	17W-7L	70.8%	+9.6 u

All 1389 Moneyline 664 Total goals 701 1st-period total 24

Date	Game	Market	Trend	Model gap	Odds	Result
18/04	MIN @ DAL6–1	Moneyline	DAL	+2.8 pts	@ 1.83	Lost
18/04	OTT @ CAR0–2	Moneyline	OTT	+3.3 pts	@ 2.22	Lost
16/04	VAN @ EDM1–6	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.83	Won
16/04	ANA @ NSH5–4	Moneyline	NSH	+8.4 pts	@ 1.91	Lost
16/04	STL @ UTA5–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.88	Won
16/04	SEA @ COL0–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.99	Won
16/04	SEA @ COL0–2	Moneyline	SEA	+11.4 pts	@ 2.62	Lost
16/04	SJS @ WPG6–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.9 goals	@ 1.92	Lost
16/04	LAK @ CGY1–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.4 goals	@ 1.98	Won
16/04	VAN @ EDM1–6	Moneyline	VAN	+4.4 pts	@ 3.85	Lost
16/04	ANA @ NSH5–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
15/04	SJS @ CHI2–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+2.1 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
15/04	DAL @ BUF4–3	Moneyline	DAL	+9.5 pts	@ 1.75	Won
15/04	DAL @ BUF4–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.4 goals	@ 1.98	Lost
15/04	DET @ FLA1–8	Moneyline	DET	+10.5 pts	@ 1.66	Lost
15/04	DET @ FLA1–8	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
15/04	TOR @ OTT1–3	Moneyline	TOR	+14.6 pts	@ 2.77	Lost
15/04	TOR @ OTT1–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.1 goals	@ 2.09	Won
15/04	SEA @ VGK1–4	Moneyline	SEA	+5.5 pts	@ 3.53	Lost
15/04	SEA @ VGK1–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.2 goals	@ 1.85	Won
15/04	NYR @ TBL4–2	Moneyline	NYR	+2.4 pts	@ 2.43	Won
15/04	NYR @ TBL4–2	Total goals	Over 6	+1.4 goals	@ 1.90	Push
15/04	SJS @ CHI2–5	Moneyline	CHI	+10.6 pts	@ 2.06	Won
14/04	PIT @ STL5–7	Moneyline	PIT	+4.4 pts	@ 2.80	Lost
14/04	PIT @ STL5–7	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.88	Lost
14/04	ANA @ MIN2–3	Moneyline	ANA	+3.1 pts	@ 1.57	Lost
14/04	MTL @ PHI2–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.4 goals	@ 2.03	Push
14/04	NJD @ BOS0–4	Moneyline	BOS	+1.5 pts	@ 1.68	Won
14/04	COL @ CGY3–1	Moneyline	CGY	+3.4 pts	@ 2.25	Lost
14/04	COL @ CGY3–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.86	Won
14/04	CAR @ NYI2–1	Moneyline	NYI	+5.3 pts	@ 2.40	Lost
14/04	WSH @ CBJ2–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.04	Won
14/04	MTL @ PHI2–4	Moneyline	MTL	+21.8 pts	@ 2.71	Lost
14/04	LAK @ VAN3–4	Moneyline	LAK	+0.3 pts	@ 1.65	Lost
14/04	LAK @ VAN3–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
14/04	WPG @ UTA3–5	Moneyline	WPG	+9.9 pts	@ 2.79	Lost
14/04	ANA @ MIN2–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 2.06	Won
14/04	WSH @ CBJ2–1	Moneyline	WSH	+3.6 pts	@ 2.21	Won
13/04	DET @ TBL3–4	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.4 goals	@ 2.04	Won
13/04	WPG @ VGK2–6	Moneyline	WPG	+6.2 pts	@ 2.51	Lost
13/04	BUF @ CHI5–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.90	Won
13/04	BUF @ CHI5–1	Moneyline	CHI	+1.2 pts	@ 2.75	Lost
13/04	NYR @ FLA2–3	Moneyline	FLA	+4.8 pts	@ 1.59	Won
13/04	LAK @ SEA5–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.97	Won
13/04	COL @ EDM2–1	Moneyline	COL	+14.9 pts	@ 1.85	Won
13/04	MIN @ STL3–6	Moneyline	STL	+0.4 pts	@ 1.60	Won
13/04	DET @ TBL3–4	Moneyline	TBL	+5.0 pts	@ 1.57	Won
13/04	COL @ EDM2–1	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
13/04	LAK @ SEA5–3	Moneyline	SEA	+0.3 pts	@ 2.55	Lost
13/04	DAL @ TOR6–5	Moneyline	TOR	+2.5 pts	@ 1.92	Lost
12/04	VAN @ ANA4–3	Moneyline	VAN	+0.5 pts	@ 3.61	Won
12/04	PIT @ WSH0–3	Moneyline	PIT	+2.4 pts	@ 2.26	Lost
12/04	MTL @ NYI4–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.8 goals	@ 1.87	Lost
12/04	OTT @ NJD3–4	Moneyline	NJD	+11.2 pts	@ 2.17	Won
12/04	VAN @ ANA4–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.76	Won
12/04	BOS @ CBJ3–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.84	Won
12/04	MTL @ NYI4–1	Moneyline	MTL	+9.0 pts	@ 1.93	Won
12/04	OTT @ NJD3–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.91	Won
11/04	NJD @ DET5–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
11/04	VAN @ SJS4–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.8 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
11/04	TBL @ BOS2–1	Moneyline	BOS	+5.8 pts	@ 1.94	Lost
11/04	FLA @ TOR6–2	Moneyline	TOR	+4.4 pts	@ 1.68	Lost
11/04	TBL @ BOS2–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
11/04	CGY @ SEA1–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.95	Won
11/04	MIN @ NSH1–2	Moneyline	MIN	+1.9 pts	@ 7.96	Lost
11/04	CAR @ UTA4–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.92	Won
11/04	NYR @ DAL0–2	Moneyline	DAL	+5.0 pts	@ 1.56	Won
11/04	CBJ @ MTL5–2	Moneyline	MTL	+7.6 pts	@ 1.78	Lost
11/04	NYR @ DAL0–2	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.6 goals	@ 2.05	Won
11/04	VGK @ COL3–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.9 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
11/04	PHI @ WPG7–1	Moneyline	PHI	+16.0 pts	@ 2.06	Won
11/04	PHI @ WPG7–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.02	Won
11/04	CAR @ UTA4–1	Moneyline	CAR	+3.8 pts	@ 1.10	Won
11/04	VAN @ SJS4–3	Moneyline	VAN	+11.4 pts	@ 2.76	Won
11/04	MIN @ NSH1–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.88	Won
11/04	EDM @ LAK0–1	Moneyline	EDM	+12.1 pts	@ 2.06	Lost
11/04	CGY @ SEA1–4	Moneyline	CGY	+2.0 pts	@ 2.11	Lost
11/04	STL @ CHI5–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.95	Lost
11/04	CBJ @ MTL5–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
11/04	NJD @ DET5–3	Moneyline	DET	+0.9 pts	@ 1.81	Lost
11/04	FLA @ TOR6–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.6 goals	@ 1.94	Lost
11/04	STL @ CHI5–3	Moneyline	CHI	+1.3 pts	@ 10.06	Lost
11/04	VGK @ COL3–2	Moneyline	COL	+9.0 pts	@ 1.77	Lost
09/04	TOR @ NYI3–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.95	Lost
09/04	MIN @ DAL4–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.4 goals	@ 1.94	Won
09/04	PHI @ DET3–6	Moneyline	DET	+0.0 pts	@ 1.87	Won
09/04	WPG @ STL3–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.91	Lost
09/04	PIT @ NJD5–2	Moneyline	PIT	+7.6 pts	@ 1.94	Won
09/04	MIN @ DAL4–5	Moneyline	DAL	+2.5 pts	@ 1.82	Won
09/04	FLA @ OTT1–5	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.03	Push
09/04	VGK @ SEA3–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.4 goals	@ 1.92	Won
09/04	CAR @ CHI7–2	Moneyline	CHI	+2.0 pts	@ 2.87	Lost
09/04	NSH @ UTA1–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.01	Won
09/04	CBJ @ BUF0–5	Moneyline	CBJ	+6.1 pts	@ 2.05	Lost
09/04	VAN @ LAK1–4	Moneyline	VAN	+9.9 pts	@ 3.35	Lost
09/04	PHI @ DET3–6	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.01	Won
09/04	VAN @ LAK1–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.94	Won
09/04	TOR @ NYI3–5	Moneyline	NYI	+5.3 pts	@ 1.38	Won
09/04	CGY @ COL1–3	Moneyline	CGY	+15.8 pts	@ 3.73	Lost
09/04	CBJ @ BUF0–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.88	Won
09/04	CGY @ COL1–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.85	Won
09/04	WPG @ STL3–2	Moneyline	WPG	+11.6 pts	@ 1.95	Won
09/04	CAR @ CHI7–2	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 2.04	Won
09/04	FLA @ OTT1–5	Moneyline	OTT	+0.5 pts	@ 1.32	Won
09/04	SJS @ ANA1–6	Moneyline	ANA	+2.5 pts	@ 1.58	Won
09/04	PIT @ NJD5–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.4 goals	@ 2.10	Lost
09/04	SJS @ ANA1–6	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.07	Lost
09/04	NSH @ UTA1–4	Moneyline	NSH	+6.9 pts	@ 2.45	Lost
08/04	BUF @ NYR5–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.88	Lost
08/04	WSH @ TOR4–0	Moneyline	WSH	+3.9 pts	@ 1.66	Won
08/04	EDM @ SJS5–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.10	Lost
08/04	BUF @ NYR5–3	Moneyline	BUF	+8.8 pts	@ 1.80	Won
08/04	WSH @ TOR4–0	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.93	Won
08/04	EDM @ SJS5–2	Moneyline	EDM	+9.5 pts	@ 1.91	Won
07/04	SEA @ MIN2–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.90	Won
07/04	CBJ @ DET4–3	Moneyline	CBJ	+1.8 pts	@ 1.99	Won
07/04	NSH @ ANA5–0	Moneyline	NSH	+4.0 pts	@ 2.27	Won
07/04	PHI @ NJD5–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 2.01	Push
07/04	COL @ STL3–1	Moneyline	COL	+4.0 pts	@ 1.67	Won
07/04	BOS @ CAR5–6	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.88	Won

Frequently asked questions

What is the "model gap"?

For the moneyline, it is the gap in probability points between our model and the probability implied by the odds: +5 pts means the model gave the team 5 more points of chance than the market. For totals, it is the gap in goals between the total projected by our model and the market line.

Why publish losing trends?

Because transparency is our product: the journal publishes every signal's outcome, won or lost. That is what proves our official picks come from genuinely validated zones, not hindsight selection.

Should a winning trend have been an official pick?

Not necessarily: at single-game scale, variance dominates. A zone only turns official if its hit rate holds on sufficient volume. This journal exists precisely to document those zones in real conditions.

Where can I see official picks and their results?

On the Track Record page — the raw, timestamped journal of every settled official pick — and on the NHL page for today's picks.