Our Methodology
No black box. Here's exactly how our analyses are generated.
The 5-Step Pipeline
Data Collection
Dozens of sports data sources are aggregated daily: player stats, H2H history, injuries, conditions, and real-time odds from Pinnacle.
Sport-Specific ML Models
Each sport has its own Machine Learning model (gradient boosting). An NHL Totals model ≠ a Tennis ML model. Each model is trained on years of historical data to estimate the true probability of an outcome.
AI Analysis Layer
For each game, a dedicated AI (the Analyst) projects how the match will unfold: Game Script for the NBA, tactical reading for Soccer, surface analysis for Tennis. It writes a full analysis explaining the reasoning.
Filters & Guardrails
Anti-pattern filters automatically block signals that have historically led to losses. Only games with a significant edge (model probability > implied odds probability) are selected.
Publication & Traceability
Every analysis is timestamped, published before the game, and never modified after the fact. Wins AND losses are visible in our track record. We also track CLV (Closing Line Value) to prove our odds beat the closing line.
Closing Line Value, measured
For every pick we take the best price across seven European books, then compare it to Pinnacle's closing line — the sharpest, most efficient book. Beating the close, over a large sample, is the most robust evidence an edge is real.
Measured CLV — last 365 days, price taken (best of 7 books) vs Pinnacle close:
Our taken prices beat Pinnacle's close on these sports — the market proves us right after the fact. Only sports with a positive, statistically significant CLV (≥ 100 settled picks) appear here; the pick-by-pick detail is in the public log.
How to spot a reliable prediction service
Before paying for a subscription, a serious bettor looks at the process, not screenshots of winnings. Here are the six criteria that separate a verifiable method from the rest — and where ProbWin stands on each.
1. A complete, verifiable log
Every pick, winners and losers, timestamped before kickoff, never deleted. Very few services publish a complete settled log, accessible without an account. Ours is public.
2. Proof through CLV
Beating the closing line — not just "being right" after the fact. It's the most robust evidence of a real edge. We measure and show it (above).
3. Calibrated probabilities
When the model says 60%, it should happen roughly 60% of the time. Measurable — not a gut feeling.
4. Best odds, not a single book
Half a point of odds changes the return over time. We compare seven books and take the best available price for each pick.
5. No guaranteed wins
Nobody can guarantee a bet. A serious service sells a method and analysis, not certainties.
6. Published before kickoff
A selection timestamped before the game can't be "picked" afterwards. It's the baseline of an honest track record.
| The criterion | Common "tips" approach | ProbWin |
|---|---|---|
| Full public log | Often partial or missing | Yes, all of it |
| CLV tracking | Almost never | Yes, measured |
| Calibrated probabilities | Rarely shown | Yes, verifiable |
| Best odds (multi-book) | A single book | 7 books compared |
| Guaranteed-win claims | Common | None |
| Published before kickoff | Varies | Always, timestamped |
What We Do NOT Do
Independent models — our analyses are not influenced by any bookmaker
No cherry-picked results — everything is visible, including losses
No inflated win rates — 60% is exceptional and we present it as is
No human "guru" — the model decides, not an ego
All results, transparent and verifiable.
