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AI Trends Journal — NHL

An AI trend is a model signal that does not meet every requirement of an official pick: goalies not yet confirmed, a read not validated by our analyst, a probability outside the zone where our model is reliable, or a market under observation (the 1st period). We publish them all, recorded before the game, and settle them against the score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: it lets anyone check, in real conditions, that our official thresholds sit in the right place.

Why isn't a trend an official pick?

Goalies

No official pick is taken until both goalies are confirmed. A model signal before that confirmation stays a trend.

Moneyline

Official only when our analyst validates the model's read and the stated probability stays below 70%: above that, our tracking shows the model overrates its chances. Other signals stay trends.

Total goals

Official after our analyst's validation, with both goalies confirmed. Weak or unvalidated signals stay trends.

1st period

Market under observation since October 2026: no official pick, every read is published here as a trend.

Per-market summary — settled trends

How to read this table: it only shows trends (never our official picks, tracked on the track record). A winning trend does not mean it should have been played: it had not cleared our thresholds. This journal exists to verify, over time, that our thresholds sit in the right place — in both directions.

Market	Settled trends	Record	Hit rate	Units
Moneyline	664	321W-343L	48.3%	-28.5 u
Total goals	701	321W-337L	48.8%	-39.0 u
1st-period total	24	17W-7L	70.8%	+9.6 u

All 1389 Moneyline 664 Total goals 701 1st-period total 24

Date	Game	Market	Trend	Model gap	Odds	Result
21/05	MTL @ CAR6–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.85	Won
21/05	MTL @ CAR6–2	Moneyline	MTL	+3.9 pts	@ 2.75	Won
20/05	VGK @ COL4–2	Total goals	Over 6.5	+1.6 goals	@ 2.04	Lost
20/05	VGK @ COL4–2	Moneyline	COL	+2.5 pts	@ 1.53	Lost
18/05	MTL @ BUF3–2	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.90	Won
18/05	MTL @ BUF3–2	Moneyline	BUF	+1.5 pts	@ 1.83	Lost
16/05	BUF @ MTL8–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
16/05	BUF @ MTL8–3	Moneyline	BUF	+3.7 pts	@ 2.43	Won
14/05	VGK @ ANA5–1	Moneyline	VGK	+5.1 pts	@ 1.94	Won
14/05	MTL @ BUF6–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 2.00	Won
14/05	MTL @ BUF6–3	Moneyline	MTL	+14.3 pts	@ 2.04	Won
14/05	VGK @ ANA5–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.83	Won
13/05	MIN @ COL3–4	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.97	Won
13/05	MIN @ COL3–4	Moneyline	MIN	+11.8 pts	@ 2.87	Lost
12/05	ANA @ VGK2–3	Moneyline	ANA	+6.8 pts	@ 2.30	Lost
12/05	BUF @ MTL3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.8 goals	@ 2.02	Won
12/05	BUF @ MTL3–2	Moneyline	MTL	+14.6 pts	@ 1.71	Lost
12/05	ANA @ VGK2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.83	Lost
11/05	COL @ MIN5–2	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.98	Won
11/05	COL @ MIN5–2	Moneyline	MIN	+0.3 pts	@ 2.25	Lost
10/05	VGK @ ANA3–4	Moneyline	VGK	+1.2 pts	@ 1.89	Lost
09/05	CAR @ PHI3–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.21	Lost
09/05	CAR @ PHI3–2	Moneyline	PHI	+6.3 pts	@ 1.74	Lost
09/05	COL @ MIN1–5	Moneyline	COL	+12.8 pts	@ 1.77	Lost
08/05	VGK @ ANA6–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.86	Won
08/05	VGK @ ANA6–2	Moneyline	VGK	+1.8 pts	@ 1.95	Won
07/05	CAR @ PHI4–1	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.77	Won
07/05	CAR @ PHI4–1	Moneyline	PHI	+3.9 pts	@ 2.44	Lost
06/05	ANA @ VGK3–1	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
06/05	ANA @ VGK3–1	Moneyline	ANA	+12.9 pts	@ 2.36	Won
05/05	MIN @ COL2–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.91	Lost
05/05	MIN @ COL2–5	Moneyline	COL	+9.7 pts	@ 1.50	Won
04/05	PHI @ CAR2–3	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.82	Won
04/05	PHI @ CAR2–3	Moneyline	PHI	+5.3 pts	@ 3.13	Lost
04/05	ANA @ VGK1–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+1.0 goals	@ 2.01	Lost
04/05	ANA @ VGK1–3	Moneyline	ANA	+10.0 pts	@ 2.46	Lost
03/05	MTL @ TBL2–1	Total goals	Over 5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.75	Lost
03/05	MTL @ TBL2–1	Moneyline	MTL	+14.6 pts	@ 2.34	Won
03/05	MIN @ COL6–9	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.88	Lost
03/05	MIN @ COL6–9	Moneyline	COL	+11.4 pts	@ 1.56	Won
02/05	PHI @ CAR0–3	Total goals	Over 5.5	+1.2 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
02/05	PHI @ CAR0–3	Moneyline	PHI	+3.1 pts	@ 3.10	Lost
01/05	BUF @ BOS4–1	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.88	Lost
01/05	BUF @ BOS4–1	Moneyline	BOS	+3.5 pts	@ 2.02	Lost
01/05	TBL @ MTL1–0	Moneyline	MTL	+16.9 pts	@ 2.02	Lost
01/05	VGK @ UTA5–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 2.02	Push
01/05	VGK @ UTA5–1	Moneyline	VGK	+1.6 pts	@ 1.90	Won
30/04	DAL @ MIN2–5	Moneyline	DAL	+14.4 pts	@ 2.09	Lost
30/04	EDM @ ANA2–5	Total goals	Under 7	+0.3 goals	@ 1.86	Push
30/04	DAL @ MIN2–5	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.6 goals	@ 2.01	Lost
30/04	EDM @ ANA2–5	Moneyline	EDM	+2.4 pts	@ 1.81	Lost
29/04	MTL @ TBL3–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
29/04	PIT @ PHI0–1	Moneyline	PHI	+4.6 pts	@ 1.93	Won
29/04	UTA @ VGK4–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.04	Won
29/04	MTL @ TBL3–2	Moneyline	MTL	+11.3 pts	@ 2.37	Won
29/04	PIT @ PHI0–1	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.85	Won
29/04	UTA @ VGK4–5	Moneyline	UTA	+8.7 pts	@ 2.40	Lost
28/04	BOS @ BUF2–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
28/04	MIN @ DAL4–2	Moneyline	DAL	+8.4 pts	@ 1.79	Lost
28/04	ANA @ EDM1–4	Total goals	Under 7	+0.9 goals	@ 1.94	Won
28/04	BOS @ BUF2–1	Moneyline	BOS	+6.4 pts	@ 2.43	Won
28/04	MIN @ DAL4–2	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.6 goals	@ 2.01	Lost
28/04	ANA @ EDM1–4	Moneyline	ANA	+4.6 pts	@ 2.35	Lost
27/04	PHI @ PIT2–3	Moneyline	PHI	+13.9 pts	@ 2.15	Lost
27/04	VGK @ UTA5–4	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.9 goals	@ 1.83	Won
27/04	PHI @ PIT2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
27/04	VGK @ UTA5–4	Moneyline	VGK	+0.1 pts	@ 1.88	Won
26/04	COL @ LAK5–1	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.96	Lost
26/04	TBL @ MTL3–2	Moneyline	MTL	+17.8 pts	@ 1.94	Lost
26/04	EDM @ ANA3–4	Total goals	Under 7	+0.3 goals	@ 2.00	Push
26/04	COL @ LAK5–1	Moneyline	COL	+11.4 pts	@ 1.59	Won
26/04	TBL @ MTL3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.88	Won
26/04	EDM @ ANA3–4	Moneyline	EDM	+3.4 pts	@ 1.73	Lost
26/04	BUF @ BOS6–1	Moneyline	BUF	+0.8 pts	@ 1.96	Won
25/04	CAR @ OTT4–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.8 goals	@ 1.88	Won
25/04	PIT @ PHI4–2	Moneyline	PHI	+0.9 pts	@ 1.86	Lost
25/04	PIT @ PHI4–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.02	Push
25/04	DAL @ MIN2–3	Moneyline	DAL	+8.6 pts	@ 2.17	Lost
25/04	DAL @ MIN2–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.89	Won
25/04	CAR @ OTT4–2	Moneyline	CAR	+6.5 pts	@ 1.74	Won
24/04	TBL @ MTL2–3	Moneyline	MTL	+17.8 pts	@ 2.03	Won
24/04	TBL @ MTL2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
24/04	EDM @ ANA4–7	Moneyline	EDM	+0.8 pts	@ 1.72	Lost
24/04	EDM @ ANA4–7	Total goals	Under 7	+0.2 goals	@ 1.87	Lost
24/04	VGK @ UTA2–4	Moneyline	UTA	+2.2 pts	@ 1.96	Won
24/04	VGK @ UTA2–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.9 goals	@ 1.99	Push
23/04	CAR @ OTT2–1	Total goals	Over 5.5	+1.6 goals	@ 1.84	Lost
23/04	BUF @ BOS3–1	Moneyline	BUF	+2.9 pts	@ 1.93	Won
23/04	COL @ LAK4–2	Moneyline	COL	+11.4 pts	@ 1.64	Won
23/04	COL @ LAK4–2	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.91	Lost
23/04	CAR @ OTT2–1	Moneyline	CAR	+5.1 pts	@ 1.46	Won
22/04	PIT @ PHI2–5	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.01	Lost
22/04	PIT @ PHI2–5	Moneyline	PIT	+4.8 pts	@ 1.95	Lost
22/04	ANA @ EDM6–4	Total goals	Under 7	+0.9 goals	@ 1.78	Lost
22/04	ANA @ EDM6–4	Moneyline	ANA	+10.6 pts	@ 2.61	Won
22/04	DAL @ MIN4–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.88	Lost
22/04	DAL @ MIN4–3	Moneyline	DAL	+10.2 pts	@ 2.23	Won
21/04	UTA @ VGK3–2	Moneyline	UTA	+12.5 pts	@ 2.32	Won
21/04	MTL @ TBL2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.04	Lost
21/04	BOS @ BUF4–2	Moneyline	BOS	+7.3 pts	@ 2.43	Won
21/04	UTA @ VGK3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.90	Won
21/04	LAK @ COL1–2	Moneyline	COL	+8.4 pts	@ 1.38	Won
21/04	MTL @ TBL2–3	Moneyline	MTL	+8.6 pts	@ 2.59	Lost
21/04	BOS @ BUF4–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.97	Push
20/04	MIN @ DAL2–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.87	Push
20/04	ANA @ EDM3–4	Moneyline	ANA	+8.1 pts	@ 2.67	Lost
20/04	PHI @ PIT3–0	Moneyline	PHI	+1.9 pts	@ 2.29	Won
20/04	OTT @ CAR2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.6 goals	@ 2.07	Lost
20/04	MIN @ DAL2–4	Moneyline	DAL	+4.6 pts	@ 1.72	Won
20/04	ANA @ EDM3–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.19	Lost
20/04	PHI @ PIT3–0	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.95	Lost
20/04	OTT @ CAR2–3	Moneyline	OTT	+1.9 pts	@ 2.28	Lost
19/04	BOS @ BUF3–4	Moneyline	BOS	+5.5 pts	@ 2.43	Lost
19/04	UTA @ VGK2–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.99	Push
19/04	MTL @ TBL4–3	Moneyline	MTL	+5.0 pts	@ 2.55	Won
19/04	BOS @ BUF3–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.87	Won
19/04	UTA @ VGK2–4	Moneyline	UTA	+10.6 pts	@ 2.34	Lost
19/04	LAK @ COL1–2	Moneyline	COL	+7.1 pts	@ 1.38	Won
19/04	LAK @ COL1–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.85	Won
18/04	PHI @ PIT3–2	Moneyline	PHI	+3.4 pts	@ 2.27	Won

Frequently asked questions

What is the "model gap"?

For the moneyline, it is the gap in probability points between our model and the probability implied by the odds: +5 pts means the model gave the team 5 more points of chance than the market. For totals, it is the gap in goals between the total projected by our model and the market line.

Why publish losing trends?

Because transparency is our product: the journal publishes every signal's outcome, won or lost. That is what proves our official picks come from genuinely validated zones, not hindsight selection.

Should a winning trend have been an official pick?

Not necessarily: at single-game scale, variance dominates. A zone only turns official if its hit rate holds on sufficient volume. This journal exists precisely to document those zones in real conditions.

Where can I see official picks and their results?

On the Track Record page — the raw, timestamped journal of every settled official pick — and on the NHL page for today's picks.