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AI Trends Journal — NHL

An AI trend is a model signal that does not meet every requirement of an official pick: goalies not yet confirmed, a read not validated by our analyst, a probability outside the zone where our model is reliable, or a market under observation (the 1st period). We publish them all, recorded before the game, and settle them against the score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: it lets anyone check, in real conditions, that our official thresholds sit in the right place.

Why isn't a trend an official pick?

Goalies

No official pick is taken until both goalies are confirmed. A model signal before that confirmation stays a trend.

Moneyline

Official only when our analyst validates the model's read and the stated probability stays below 70%: above that, our tracking shows the model overrates its chances. Other signals stay trends.

Total goals

Official after our analyst's validation, with both goalies confirmed. Weak or unvalidated signals stay trends.

1st period

Market under observation since October 2026: no official pick, every read is published here as a trend.

Per-market summary — settled trends

How to read this table: it only shows trends (never our official picks, tracked on the track record). A winning trend does not mean it should have been played: it had not cleared our thresholds. This journal exists to verify, over time, that our thresholds sit in the right place — in both directions.

Market	Settled trends	Record	Hit rate	Units
Moneyline	664	321W-343L	48.3%	-28.5 u
Total goals	701	321W-337L	48.8%	-39.0 u
1st-period total	24	17W-7L	70.8%	+9.6 u

All 1389 Moneyline 664 Total goals 701 1st-period total 24

Date	Game	Market	Trend	Model gap	Odds	Result
23/01	NJD @ VAN5–4	Moneyline	VAN	+3.5 pts	@ 2.31	Lost
23/01	WSH @ CGY3–1	Moneyline	CGY	+2.2 pts	@ 2.16	Lost
23/01	NYR @ SJS1–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 2.14	Won
23/01	WSH @ CGY3–1	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.90	Won
23/01	ANA @ SEA4–2	Moneyline	SEA	+3.5 pts	@ 1.86	Lost
23/01	VGK @ TOR6–3	Moneyline	VGK	+4.1 pts	@ 1.20	Won
23/01	ANA @ SEA4–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.88	Won
23/01	NYR @ SJS1–3	Moneyline	SJS	+7.0 pts	@ 1.87	Won
23/01	PHI @ COL7–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.92	Won
23/01	PHI @ COL7–3	Moneyline	COL	+5.7 pts	@ 1.34	Lost
23/01	NJD @ VAN5–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Won
22/01	DAL @ CBJ0–1	Moneyline	DAL	+3.0 pts	@ 1.94	Lost
22/01	OTT @ NSH3–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.88	Won
22/01	FLA @ WPG2–1	Moneyline	FLA	+1.0 pts	@ 1.95	Won
22/01	CHI @ CAR4–3	Moneyline	CHI	+9.5 pts	@ 3.45	Won
22/01	CHI @ CAR4–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.8 goals	@ 1.87	Won
22/01	OTT @ NSH3–5	Moneyline	OTT	+9.6 pts	@ 1.90	Lost
22/01	BUF @ MTL4–2	Moneyline	MTL	+1.6 pts	@ 1.82	Lost
22/01	VGK @ BOS3–4	Moneyline	VGK	+9.0 pts	@ 1.67	Lost
21/01	PIT @ CGY4–1	Moneyline	PIT	+7.9 pts	@ 1.88	Won
21/01	PHI @ UTA4–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.94	Won
20/01	SJS @ TBL1–4	Moneyline	TBL	+8.5 pts	@ 1.34	Won
20/01	BUF @ NSH5–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.88	Lost
20/01	SJS @ TBL1–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.88	Won
20/01	BOS @ DAL2–6	Moneyline	BOS	+3.6 pts	@ 2.25	Lost
20/01	NYR @ LAK3–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 2.02	Won
20/01	NYR @ LAK3–4	Moneyline	LAK	+9.5 pts	@ 1.53	Won
20/01	MIN @ MTL3–4	Moneyline	MIN	+1.8 pts	@ 2.21	Lost
20/01	NJD @ EDM2–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.87	Lost
20/01	BUF @ NSH5–3	Moneyline	NSH	+1.6 pts	@ 1.81	Lost
19/01	WPG @ CHI0–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 2.02	Lost
19/01	SJS @ FLA4–1	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.87	Lost
19/01	WSH @ COL2–5	Moneyline	WSH	+0.4 pts	@ 2.73	Lost
19/01	BUF @ CAR1–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.87	Won
19/01	PHI @ VGK2–1	Total goals	Over 6	+1.4 goals	@ 1.88	Lost
19/01	WPG @ CHI0–2	Moneyline	WPG	+1.4 pts	@ 1.76	Lost
19/01	PIT @ SEA6–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.90	Lost
19/01	BUF @ CAR1–2	Moneyline	BUF	+0.6 pts	@ 5.31	Lost
19/01	NYR @ ANA3–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.15	Won
19/01	MIN @ TOR6–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.94	Lost
19/01	SJS @ FLA4–1	Moneyline	FLA	+0.8 pts	@ 1.59	Lost
19/01	WSH @ COL2–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.97	Lost
17/01	NSH @ VGK2–7	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.06	Won
17/01	NYI @ CGY2–4	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.85	Won
17/01	EDM @ VAN6–0	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
17/01	MIN @ BUF5–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
17/01	TOR @ WPG4–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
17/01	SEA @ UTA3–6	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.84	Won
16/01	NSH @ COL7–3	Moneyline	COL	+4.7 pts	@ 1.36	Lost
16/01	NSH @ COL7–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.01	Won
16/01	SJS @ DET2–4	Moneyline	DET	+3.3 pts	@ 1.67	Won
16/01	FLA @ CAR1–9	Moneyline	FLA	+3.6 pts	@ 12.69	Lost
16/01	SJS @ DET2–4	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.02	Lost
16/01	ANA @ LAK3–2	Moneyline	LAK	+0.8 pts	@ 1.70	Lost
15/01	TOR @ VGK5–6	Total goals	Under 6.5	-0.4 goals	@ 1.87	Lost
15/01	MTL @ BUF3–5	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.98	Won
15/01	WPG @ MIN6–2	Moneyline	WPG	+2.8 pts	@ 2.16	Won
15/01	WPG @ MIN6–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.85	Won
15/01	TOR @ VGK5–6	Moneyline	TOR	+4.8 pts	@ 2.14	Lost
15/01	VAN @ CBJ1–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	-0.2 goals	@ 2.08	Won
15/01	CGY @ CHI3–1	Total goals	Under 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.95	Won
15/01	SJS @ WSH3–2	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
15/01	SEA @ BOS2–4	Moneyline	BOS	+2.9 pts	@ 1.60	Won
15/01	PHI @ PIT3–6	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.90	Won
14/01	PHI @ BUF2–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.85	Won
14/01	SEA @ NJD2–3	Moneyline	SEA	+1.0 pts	@ 2.39	Lost
14/01	VGK @ LAK3–2	Moneyline	VGK	+4.4 pts	@ 1.88	Won
14/01	SEA @ NJD2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.7 goals	@ 2.01	Lost
14/01	OTT @ NYR8–4	Moneyline	NYR	+1.4 pts	@ 2.01	Lost
13/01	EDM @ NSH3–4	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Won
13/01	DAL @ ANA1–3	Moneyline	ANA	+1.5 pts	@ 2.05	Won
13/01	DET @ BOS0–3	Moneyline	BOS	+2.6 pts	@ 1.80	Won
13/01	TBL @ PIT2–1	Moneyline	TBL	+2.8 pts	@ 1.72	Won
13/01	VAN @ OTT1–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	-0.1 goals	@ 1.94	Won
13/01	EDM @ NSH3–4	Moneyline	EDM	+0.5 pts	@ 1.76	Lost
13/01	CAR @ STL0–3	Moneyline	CAR	+2.4 pts	@ 1.58	Lost
13/01	CGY @ CBJ3–5	Moneyline	CGY	+0.4 pts	@ 2.26	Lost
13/01	TOR @ UTA1–6	Moneyline	UTA	+2.3 pts	@ 1.72	Won
13/01	CGY @ CBJ3–5	Total goals	Under 6	-0.1 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
13/01	NYI @ WPG4–5	Moneyline	NYI	+3.2 pts	@ 2.11	Lost
13/01	MTL @ WSH2–3	Moneyline	WSH	+1.4 pts	@ 1.78	Won
12/01	TOR @ COL4–3	Moneyline	TOR	+4.4 pts	@ 2.95	Won
12/01	TOR @ COL4–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.91	Won
12/01	SEA @ NYR4–2	Moneyline	SEA	+2.1 pts	@ 2.23	Won
12/01	FLA @ BUF4–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.88	Won
12/01	NJD @ MIN5–2	Moneyline	NJD	+3.3 pts	@ 2.47	Won
12/01	NJD @ MIN1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.04	Won
12/01	EDM @ CHI4–1	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.91	Lost
12/01	VAN @ MTL3–6	Moneyline	VAN	+3.6 pts	@ 2.69	Lost
12/01	VAN @ MTL3–6	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.97	Won
11/01	WSH @ NSH2–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
11/01	NJD @ WPG3–4	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.86	Won
11/01	CBJ @ UTA3–2	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
11/01	PIT @ BOS0–1	Moneyline	BOS	+9.7 pts	@ 2.05	Won
11/01	VGK @ SJS7–2	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.86	Won
11/01	PIT @ BOS0–1	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
11/01	NJD @ WPG3–4	Moneyline	WPG	+5.7 pts	@ 1.83	Won
10/01	FLA @ OTT3–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
10/01	DET @ MTL4–0	Moneyline	MTL	+5.3 pts	@ 1.75	Lost
10/01	DET @ MTL4–0	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.03	Lost
10/01	CGY @ PIT2–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
10/01	CHI @ NSH3–0	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.90	Lost
10/01	LAK @ EDM4–3	Moneyline	EDM	+7.9 pts	@ 1.55	Lost
10/01	VAN @ TOR0–5	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
10/01	FLA @ OTT3–2	Moneyline	OTT	+4.7 pts	@ 1.85	Lost
10/01	DAL @ SJS4–5	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.93	Won
10/01	STL @ VGK2–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.00	Push
10/01	NYR @ BOS2–10	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.98	Won
10/01	SEA @ CAR2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.89	Lost
10/01	NYI @ MIN4–3	Moneyline	MIN	+10.4 pts	@ 1.67	Lost
10/01	TBL @ PHI7–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.94	Won
10/01	NYR @ BOS2–10	Moneyline	BOS	+2.0 pts	@ 1.84	Won
10/01	CBJ @ COL0–4	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.77	Lost
10/01	LAK @ EDM4–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.04	Won
09/01	STL @ UTA2–4	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.97	Won
09/01	WSH @ CHI5–1	Moneyline	WSH	+1.6 pts	@ 1.81	Won
09/01	LAK @ WPG1–5	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.93	Won
09/01	WSH @ CHI5–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.94	Push
08/01	NJD @ PIT1–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.84	Lost
08/01	NJD @ PIT1–4	Moneyline	PIT	+10.3 pts	@ 1.95	Won

Frequently asked questions

What is the "model gap"?

For the moneyline, it is the gap in probability points between our model and the probability implied by the odds: +5 pts means the model gave the team 5 more points of chance than the market. For totals, it is the gap in goals between the total projected by our model and the market line.

Why publish losing trends?

Because transparency is our product: the journal publishes every signal's outcome, won or lost. That is what proves our official picks come from genuinely validated zones, not hindsight selection.

Should a winning trend have been an official pick?

Not necessarily: at single-game scale, variance dominates. A zone only turns official if its hit rate holds on sufficient volume. This journal exists precisely to document those zones in real conditions.

Where can I see official picks and their results?

On the Track Record page — the raw, timestamped journal of every settled official pick — and on the NHL page for today's picks.