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AI Trends Journal — NHL

An AI trend is a model signal that does not meet every requirement of an official pick: goalies not yet confirmed, a read not validated by our analyst, a probability outside the zone where our model is reliable, or a market under observation (the 1st period). We publish them all, recorded before the game, and settle them against the score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: it lets anyone check, in real conditions, that our official thresholds sit in the right place.

Why isn't a trend an official pick?

Goalies

No official pick is taken until both goalies are confirmed. A model signal before that confirmation stays a trend.

Moneyline

Official only when our analyst validates the model's read and the stated probability stays below 70%: above that, our tracking shows the model overrates its chances. Other signals stay trends.

Total goals

Official after our analyst's validation, with both goalies confirmed. Weak or unvalidated signals stay trends.

1st period

Market under observation since October 2026: no official pick, every read is published here as a trend.

Per-market summary — settled trends

How to read this table: it only shows trends (never our official picks, tracked on the track record). A winning trend does not mean it should have been played: it had not cleared our thresholds. This journal exists to verify, over time, that our thresholds sit in the right place — in both directions.

Market	Settled trends	Record	Hit rate	Units
Moneyline	664	321W-343L	48.3%	-28.5 u
Total goals	701	321W-337L	48.8%	-39.0 u
1st-period total	24	17W-7L	70.8%	+9.6 u

All 1389 Moneyline 664 Total goals 701 1st-period total 24

Date	Game	Market	Trend	Model gap	Odds	Result
08/10	NSH @ MTL5–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.84	Lost
08/10	DAL @ BUF1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.04	Won
08/10	VAN @ CAR2–7	Moneyline	CAR	+3.1 pts	@ 1.30	Won
08/10	SJS @ STL3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.86	Won
08/10	COL @ CGY1st per. 2 goals	1st-period total	Over 1.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.76	Won
08/10	CHI @ NYI1–4	Moneyline	CHI	+8.3 pts	@ 2.61	Lost
08/10	PHI @ OTT1–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+1.0 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
08/10	VAN @ CAR1st per. 3 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.17	Lost
07/10	COL @ WPG2–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Won
07/10	PIT @ WSH3–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.97	Lost
07/10	EDM @ ANA5–2	Moneyline	EDM	+8.4 pts	@ 1.78	Won
07/10	EDM @ ANA5–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.4 goals	@ 2.19	Lost
07/10	COL @ WPG2–3	Moneyline	COL	+3.5 pts	@ 1.53	Lost
06/10	VGK @ SEA6–2	Moneyline	VGK	+19.3 pts	@ 1.58	Won
06/10	NSH @ TOR4–5	Moneyline	TOR	+8.6 pts	@ 1.62	Won
06/10	STL @ CHI2–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.85	Push
06/10	OTT @ DET3–5	Moneyline	DET	+21.5 pts	@ 1.82	Won
06/10	UTA @ NJD5–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.86	Won
06/10	NYI @ NYR2–5	Moneyline	NYI	+4.7 pts	@ 2.42	Lost
06/10	UTA @ NJD5–3	Moneyline	NJD	+5.1 pts	@ 1.85	Lost
06/10	NYI @ NYR2–5	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.85	Won
06/10	FLA @ LAK2–1	Moneyline	FLA	+0.7 pts	@ 1.88	Won
06/10	NSH @ TOR4–5	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.94	Lost
06/10	CAR @ MTL6–4	Moneyline	MTL	+16.4 pts	@ 2.12	Lost
06/10	VGK @ SEA6–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
06/10	MIN @ BUF2–3	Moneyline	MIN	+1.6 pts	@ 1.93	Lost
06/10	CAR @ MTL6–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.88	Won
05/10	PHI @ TBL1–4	Moneyline	PHI	+1.2 pts	@ 2.98	Lost
05/10	WPG @ PIT3–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.90	Won
05/10	WPG @ PIT1st per. 0 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.15	Won
05/10	SJS @ DAL0–5	Moneyline	DAL	+18.0 pts	@ 1.51	Won
05/10	SJS @ DAL0–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.86	Won
05/10	WPG @ PIT3–2	Moneyline	WPG	+18.4 pts	@ 2.57	Won
05/10	PHI @ TBL1–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.7 goals	@ 2.03	Lost
04/10	FLA @ ANA2–3	Moneyline	FLA	+2.1 pts	@ 1.76	Lost
04/10	VGK @ VAN3–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
04/10	WPG @ DET3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.8 goals	@ 1.85	Won
04/10	VGK @ VAN3–2	Moneyline	VGK	+4.4 pts	@ 1.42	Won
04/10	UTA @ NYR2–4	Moneyline	NYR	+3.4 pts	@ 1.78	Won
04/10	FLA @ ANA2–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.91	Lost
04/10	CGY @ SEA1–6	Moneyline	CGY	+14.0 pts	@ 2.32	Lost
04/10	WPG @ DET3–2	Moneyline	WPG	+2.6 pts	@ 1.97	Won
04/10	UTA @ NYR2–4	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.88	Won
03/10	CGY @ VAN1–4	Moneyline	CGY	+1.0 pts	@ 1.99	Lost
03/10	OTT @ TOR3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.98	Won
03/10	DAL @ NSH1–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.4 goals	@ 1.92	Lost
03/10	UTA @ CBJ4–1	Moneyline	UTA	+1.4 pts	@ 1.93	Won
03/10	CAR @ PHI3–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.95	Lost
03/10	DAL @ NSH1–2	Moneyline	DAL	+7.2 pts	@ 1.73	Lost
03/10	NJD @ NYI0–6	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.00	Push
03/10	NJD @ NYI0–6	Moneyline	NJD	+9.7 pts	@ 1.76	Lost
03/10	SEA @ EDM1–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.96	Won
03/10	BOS @ MIN1–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 2.04	Won
03/10	SEA @ EDM1–3	Moneyline	SEA	+0.9 pts	@ 2.76	Lost
03/10	LAK @ SJS4–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.86	Won
03/10	CAR @ PHI3–2	Moneyline	CAR	+2.3 pts	@ 1.76	Won
03/10	UTA @ CBJ4–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
03/10	STL @ COL1–6	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
03/10	OTT @ TOR3–2	Moneyline	TOR	+14.6 pts	@ 1.93	Lost
03/10	MTL @ PIT5–6	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.91	Lost
03/10	WSH @ TBL1–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.84	Won
03/10	CGY @ VAN1–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.89	Lost
02/10	NYR @ DET2–0	Moneyline	DET	+7.5 pts	@ 1.81	Lost
02/10	ANA @ VGK4–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.07	Lost
02/10	STL @ DAL4–0	Moneyline	DAL	+1.6 pts	@ 1.56	Lost
02/10	STL @ DAL4–0	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.97	Lost
02/10	BOS @ WPG4–3	Moneyline	WPG	+6.2 pts	@ 1.88	Lost
02/10	ANA @ VGK4–3	Moneyline	VGK	+0.8 pts	@ 1.51	Lost
02/10	BOS @ WPG4–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.4 goals	@ 1.99	Won
01/10	SEA @ CGY6–1	Total goals	Under 6	+1.4 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
01/10	CHI @ UTA0–6	Moneyline	UTA	+5.0 pts	@ 1.47	Won
01/10	BUF @ CBJ3–6	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.90	Won
01/10	BUF @ CBJ3–6	Moneyline	CBJ	+1.8 pts	@ 2.01	Won
01/10	EDM @ VAN9–7	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.0 goals	@ 2.03	Lost
01/10	FLA @ SJS3–4	Moneyline	FLA	+5.8 pts	@ 1.69	Lost
01/10	MIN @ NSH3–1	Total goals	Under 6	+0.4 goals	@ 1.96	Won
01/10	SEA @ CGY6–1	Moneyline	SEA	+2.3 pts	@ 1.97	Won
01/10	PHI @ NJD2–3	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.86	Lost
01/10	TBL @ NYR1–5	Moneyline	TBL	+12.7 pts	@ 1.68	Lost
01/10	CHI @ UTA0–6	Total goals	Under 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.96	Push
01/10	EDM @ VAN9–7	Moneyline	EDM	+12.5 pts	@ 1.49	Won
01/10	TBL @ NYR1–5	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.85	Won
01/10	MIN @ NSH3–1	Moneyline	MIN	+7.8 pts	@ 1.69	Won
30/09	NYI @ TOR1–2	Moneyline	NYI	+4.3 pts	@ 2.14	Lost
30/09	PIT @ PHI7–0	Moneyline	PHI	+1.6 pts	@ 1.72	Lost
30/09	PIT @ PHI7–0	Total goals	Over 6	+0.7 goals	@ 1.88	Won
29/09	FLA @ CAR1–0	Total goals	Over 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.83	Lost
29/09	VAN @ EDM6–5	Moneyline	VAN	+1.0 pts	@ 3.61	Won
29/09	FLA @ CAR1–0	Moneyline	FLA	+1.9 pts	@ 2.10	Won
29/09	CHI @ VGK2–5	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
29/09	NYR @ BOS0–3	Moneyline	BOS	+6.3 pts	@ 1.95	Won
29/09	NYR @ BOS0–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
29/09	CHI @ VGK2–5	Moneyline	CHI	+4.3 pts	@ 3.27	Lost
29/09	MTL @ TOR3–2	Moneyline	TOR	+4.0 pts	@ 2.02	Lost
14/06	CAR @ VGK3–0	Total goals	Over 6	+0.7 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
14/06	CAR @ VGK3–0	Moneyline	CAR	+12.1 pts	@ 1.89	Won
11/06	VGK @ CAR2–4	Moneyline	CAR	+2.1 pts	@ 1.65	Won
11/06	VGK @ CAR2–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.90	Push
09/06	CAR @ VGK5–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.00	Won
09/06	CAR @ VGK5–3	Moneyline	CAR	+13.1 pts	@ 1.93	Won
06/06	CAR @ VGK4–5	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.84	Lost
06/06	CAR @ VGK4–5	Moneyline	CAR	+13.6 pts	@ 1.94	Lost
04/06	VGK @ CAR3–4	Moneyline	VGK	+0.9 pts	@ 2.39	Lost
04/06	VGK @ CAR3–4	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.85	Won
02/06	VGK @ CAR5–4	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.85	Won
02/06	VGK @ CAR5–4	Moneyline	VGK	+0.3 pts	@ 2.35	Won
29/05	MTL @ CAR1–6	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.95	Lost
29/05	MTL @ CAR1–6	Moneyline	MTL	+1.8 pts	@ 3.03	Lost
27/05	CAR @ MTL4–0	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.91	Lost
27/05	CAR @ MTL4–0	Moneyline	CAR	+0.8 pts	@ 1.69	Won
26/05	COL @ VGK1–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.90	Lost
26/05	COL @ VGK1–2	Moneyline	COL	+17.9 pts	@ 1.93	Lost
25/05	CAR @ MTL3–2	Moneyline	CAR	+0.9 pts	@ 1.73	Won
25/05	CAR @ MTL3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.84	Won
24/05	COL @ VGK3–5	Total goals	Under 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.92	Lost
24/05	COL @ VGK3–5	Moneyline	COL	+18.2 pts	@ 1.70	Lost
23/05	MTL @ CAR2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
23/05	MTL @ CAR2–3	Moneyline	MTL	+4.8 pts	@ 2.76	Lost
22/05	VGK @ COL3–1	Moneyline	COL	+5.7 pts	@ 1.51	Lost
22/05	VGK @ COL3–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.87	Lost

Frequently asked questions

What is the "model gap"?

For the moneyline, it is the gap in probability points between our model and the probability implied by the odds: +5 pts means the model gave the team 5 more points of chance than the market. For totals, it is the gap in goals between the total projected by our model and the market line.

Why publish losing trends?

Because transparency is our product: the journal publishes every signal's outcome, won or lost. That is what proves our official picks come from genuinely validated zones, not hindsight selection.

Should a winning trend have been an official pick?

Not necessarily: at single-game scale, variance dominates. A zone only turns official if its hit rate holds on sufficient volume. This journal exists precisely to document those zones in real conditions.

Where can I see official picks and their results?

On the Track Record page — the raw, timestamped journal of every settled official pick — and on the NHL page for today's picks.