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AI Trends Journal — NHL

An AI trend is a model signal that does not meet every requirement of an official pick: goalies not yet confirmed, a read not validated by our analyst, a probability outside the zone where our model is reliable, or a market under observation (the 1st period). We publish them all, recorded before the game, and settle them against the score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: it lets anyone check, in real conditions, that our official thresholds sit in the right place.

Why isn't a trend an official pick?

Goalies

No official pick is taken until both goalies are confirmed. A model signal before that confirmation stays a trend.

Moneyline

Official only when our analyst validates the model's read and the stated probability stays below 70%: above that, our tracking shows the model overrates its chances. Other signals stay trends.

Total goals

Official after our analyst's validation, with both goalies confirmed. Weak or unvalidated signals stay trends.

1st period

Market under observation since October 2026: no official pick, every read is published here as a trend.

Per-market summary — settled trends

How to read this table: it only shows trends (never our official picks, tracked on the track record). A winning trend does not mean it should have been played: it had not cleared our thresholds. This journal exists to verify, over time, that our thresholds sit in the right place — in both directions.

Market	Settled trends	Record	Hit rate	Units
Moneyline	664	321W-343L	48.3%	-28.5 u
Total goals	701	321W-337L	48.8%	-39.0 u
1st-period total	24	17W-7L	70.8%	+9.6 u

All 1389 Moneyline 664 Total goals 701 1st-period total 24

Date	Game	Market	Trend	Model gap	Odds	Result
15/10	VAN @ FLA2–3	Moneyline	VAN	+14.8 pts	@ 3.53	Lost
15/10	VAN @ FLA2–3	Total goals	Under 6	+0.7 goals	@ 1.98	Won
15/10	UTA @ EDM4–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.03	Won
15/10	NYI @ OTT1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Won
15/10	BUF @ TOR5–4	Moneyline	TOR	+3.6 pts	@ 1.86	Lost
15/10	WPG @ CHI3–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.99	Lost
15/10	STL @ MIN4–5	Moneyline	MIN	+2.0 pts	@ 1.72	Won
15/10	SEA @ TBL3–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.7 goals	@ 1.85	Won
15/10	SEA @ TBL3–4	Moneyline	TBL	+3.4 pts	@ 1.37	Won
15/10	BUF @ TOR5–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.4 goals	@ 2.13	Lost
15/10	SJS @ NSH3–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.5 goals	@ 1.86	Won
15/10	BUF @ TOR1st per. 3 goals	1st-period total	Over 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.68	Won
15/10	CGY @ VGK2–6	Moneyline	VGK	+4.2 pts	@ 1.36	Won
15/10	PHI @ DET1–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.85	Lost
15/10	SJS @ NSH3–2	Moneyline	NSH	+0.9 pts	@ 1.79	Lost
15/10	NYI @ OTT1–2	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.97	Lost
15/10	CGY @ VGK2–6	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.84	Lost
15/10	PHI @ DET1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.97	Won
15/10	NYR @ NJD1–7	Moneyline	NYR	+1.8 pts	@ 2.17	Lost
15/10	STL @ MIN4–5	Total goals	Under 6	+0.8 goals	@ 1.89	Lost
15/10	UTA @ EDM4–2	Moneyline	UTA	+9.0 pts	@ 1.93	Won
15/10	NYR @ NJD1–7	Total goals	Over 6	+1.1 goals	@ 1.87	Won
14/10	MTL @ WSH4–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.02	Lost
14/10	MTL @ WSH1st per. 4 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.21	Lost
14/10	DAL @ COL3–2	Moneyline	COL	+17.5 pts	@ 1.65	Lost
14/10	DAL @ COL3–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.95	Lost
14/10	DAL @ COL1st per. 0 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.02	Won
14/10	MTL @ WSH4–5	Moneyline	MTL	+23.8 pts	@ 2.04	Lost
13/10	BUF @ MTL3–4	Moneyline	MTL	+1.5 pts	@ 2.22	Won
13/10	TOR @ UTA4–5	Moneyline	TOR	+6.3 pts	@ 2.41	Lost
13/10	NJD @ DET5–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
13/10	COL @ DAL3–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.4 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
13/10	PIT @ CHI3–5	Moneyline	CHI	+8.9 pts	@ 2.42	Won
13/10	TBL @ NYR1–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.99	Won
13/10	SEA @ PHI3–2	Moneyline	PHI	+6.5 pts	@ 1.93	Lost
13/10	BOS @ SJS6–3	Moneyline	BOS	+19.5 pts	@ 1.81	Won
13/10	BUF @ MTL3–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.1 goals	@ 1.90	Lost
13/10	TOR @ UTA4–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.6 goals	@ 2.03	Lost
13/10	FLA @ CBJ7–3	Moneyline	CBJ	+2.6 pts	@ 1.73	Lost
13/10	VGK @ NSH5–2	Moneyline	VGK	+12.9 pts	@ 1.81	Won
13/10	PIT @ CHI3–5	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
13/10	VAN @ NYI2–3	Moneyline	VAN	+6.5 pts	@ 2.84	Lost
13/10	SEA @ PHI3–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.93	Won
13/10	BOS @ SJS6–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.85	Won
13/10	STL @ OTT1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.97	Won
13/10	WSH @ CAR2–4	Moneyline	WSH	+6.5 pts	@ 2.33	Lost
13/10	CGY @ ANA4–2	Moneyline	CGY	+9.5 pts	@ 2.51	Won
13/10	FLA @ CBJ7–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.96	Won
13/10	VGK @ NSH5–2	Total goals	Under 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.02	Lost
13/10	NJD @ DET5–4	Moneyline	DET	+2.9 pts	@ 1.92	Lost
13/10	COL @ DAL3–2	Moneyline	DAL	+4.6 pts	@ 1.86	Lost
13/10	STL @ OTT7–2	Total goals	Under 5.5	+0.6 goals	@ 2.05	Lost
13/10	TBL @ NYR1–4	Moneyline	NYR	+2.2 pts	@ 2.40	Won
13/10	WSH @ CAR2–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.83	Push
13/10	CGY @ ANA4–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 1.89	Push
13/10	FLA @ CBJ1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.02	Won
12/10	VGK @ MIN2–4	Moneyline	VGK	+2.9 pts	@ 1.95	Lost
12/10	VGK @ MIN2–4	Total goals	Under 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.93	Push
12/10	OTT @ NJD4–1	Moneyline	OTT	+4.2 pts	@ 2.04	Won
12/10	FLA @ BUF3–5	Total goals	Under 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
12/10	FLA @ BUF3–5	Moneyline	BUF	+11.1 pts	@ 1.43	Won
11/10	CAR @ PHI4–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 2.06	Lost
11/10	VAN @ NYR2–6	Moneyline	NYR	+13.7 pts	@ 1.38	Won
11/10	VAN @ NYR1st per. 2 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.08	Lost
11/10	SEA @ WSH5–3	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.99	Won
11/10	SEA @ WSH5–3	Moneyline	WSH	+2.7 pts	@ 1.47	Lost
11/10	SEA @ WSH1st per. 4 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.2 goals	@ 2.13	Lost
10/10	DET @ MTL0–1	Moneyline	MTL	+9.2 pts	@ 1.51	Won
10/10	LAK @ VGK1–2	Moneyline	VGK	+4.8 pts	@ 1.61	Won
10/10	PHI @ BOS1–5	Total goals	Over 5.5	+1.2 goals	@ 1.85	Won
10/10	DET @ MTL0–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.8 goals	@ 1.88	Won
10/10	TBL @ NYI1st per. 2 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.96	Lost
10/10	VAN @ NJD1–4	Moneyline	NJD	+0.6 pts	@ 1.66	Won
10/10	CBJ @ STL3–5	Moneyline	STL	+1.6 pts	@ 1.87	Won
10/10	NSH @ OTT2–3	Total goals	Over 6	+1.1 goals	@ 2.01	Lost
10/10	DET @ MTL1st per. 0 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.12	Won
10/10	CAR @ CHI5–2	Moneyline	CHI	+2.6 pts	@ 3.19	Lost
10/10	EDM @ SJS3–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.7 goals	@ 2.03	Won
10/10	TBL @ NYI5–3	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.4 goals	@ 1.91	Won
10/10	PHI @ BOS1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.97	Won
10/10	DAL @ PIT1–2	Moneyline	DAL	+25.6 pts	@ 1.55	Lost
10/10	ANA @ CGY4–2	Moneyline	CGY	+9.7 pts	@ 2.06	Lost
10/10	TOR @ COL6–3	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.4 goals	@ 2.04	Lost
10/10	CBJ @ STL1st per. 2 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.02	Lost
10/10	UTA @ BUF4–1	Moneyline	BUF	+8.7 pts	@ 2.01	Lost
10/10	UTA @ BUF4–1	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.3 goals	@ 2.03	Lost
10/10	MIN @ FLA1st per. 2 goals	1st-period total	Over 1.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.83	Won
10/10	TOR @ COL6–3	Moneyline	TOR	+7.4 pts	@ 2.94	Won
10/10	VAN @ NJD1–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.9 goals	@ 1.88	Won
10/10	CBJ @ STL3–5	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.93	Won
10/10	MIN @ FLA4–1	Moneyline	MIN	+12.5 pts	@ 2.16	Won
10/10	TBL @ NYI5–3	Moneyline	TBL	+9.9 pts	@ 1.57	Won
10/10	CAR @ CHI5–2	Total goals	Over 6	+0.2 goals	@ 1.93	Won
10/10	DAL @ PIT1st per. 0 goals	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.09	Won
10/10	NSH @ OTT2–3	Moneyline	OTT	+11.1 pts	@ 1.62	Won
10/10	MIN @ FLA4–1	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.04	Lost
10/10	ANA @ CGY4–2	Total goals	Over 6.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.98	Lost
10/10	EDM @ SJS1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Over 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.69	Lost
09/10	SEA @ DET6–3	Total goals	Over 6	+0.1 goals	@ 1.92	Won
09/10	SEA @ DET6–3	Moneyline	DET	+10.4 pts	@ 1.71	Lost
09/10	ANA @ WPG5–1	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.6 goals	@ 1.84	Won
09/10	ANA @ WPG5–1	Moneyline	WPG	+9.9 pts	@ 1.82	Lost
09/10	PIT @ CBJ2–3	Moneyline	CBJ	+5.9 pts	@ 1.86	Won
09/10	NYR @ WSH1–3	Total goals	Over 5.5	+0.7 goals	@ 1.86	Lost
09/10	NYR @ WSH1–3	Moneyline	NYR	+0.6 pts	@ 2.23	Lost
08/10	UTA @ BOS1–6	Moneyline	BOS	+8.2 pts	@ 2.11	Won
08/10	TOR @ VGK3–4	Moneyline	VGK	+2.7 pts	@ 1.61	Won
08/10	CHI @ NYI1–4	Total goals	Over 6	+0.3 goals	@ 2.02	Lost
08/10	SJS @ STL1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 1.99	Won
08/10	DAL @ BUF4–0	Moneyline	DAL	+5.2 pts	@ 1.87	Won
08/10	DAL @ BUF4–0	Total goals	Over 6	+0.6 goals	@ 1.93	Lost
08/10	PHI @ OTT1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.97	Won
08/10	MIN @ TBL2–3	Moneyline	TBL	+0.6 pts	@ 1.71	Won
08/10	TOR @ VGK3–4	Total goals	Under 6.5	+1.4 goals	@ 2.00	Lost
08/10	COL @ CGY7–3	Moneyline	COL	+0.2 pts	@ 1.42	Won
08/10	UTA @ BOS1–6	Total goals	Over 6	+0.5 goals	@ 1.93	Won
08/10	CHI @ NYI1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.01	Won
08/10	NSH @ MTL5–2	Moneyline	MTL	+8.7 pts	@ 1.63	Lost
08/10	NSH @ MTL5–2	Total goals	Under 6.5	+0.2 goals	@ 1.84	Lost
08/10	DAL @ BUF1st per. 1 goal	1st-period total	Under 1.5	+0.1 goals	@ 2.04	Won

Frequently asked questions

What is the "model gap"?

For the moneyline, it is the gap in probability points between our model and the probability implied by the odds: +5 pts means the model gave the team 5 more points of chance than the market. For totals, it is the gap in goals between the total projected by our model and the market line.

Why publish losing trends?

Because transparency is our product: the journal publishes every signal's outcome, won or lost. That is what proves our official picks come from genuinely validated zones, not hindsight selection.

Should a winning trend have been an official pick?

Not necessarily: at single-game scale, variance dominates. A zone only turns official if its hit rate holds on sufficient volume. This journal exists precisely to document those zones in real conditions.

Where can I see official picks and their results?

On the Track Record page — the raw, timestamped journal of every settled official pick — and on the NHL page for today's picks.