Our AI analyzes millions of data points to identify positive expected value bets.
Join the bettors who decide with calibrated probabilities, not hunches.
Skeptical? Check our results — every pick is public and verifiable.
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Before you decide: where ProbWin comes from, and why only data and honesty matter. 3 minutes.
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| Features | Free | Pro |
|---|---|---|
| Access to sports pages | ✓ | ✓ |
| Results history | ✓ | ✓ |
| Daily detailed analyses | ✗ | ✓ |
| AI probabilities | ✗ | ✓ |
| Value % (estimated edge) | ✗ | ✓ |
| Support | Standard | Priority |
Not a promise — the live state of the product as you read this page.
Live figures from our database — refreshed every 10 minutes. Every prediction is then settled and kept in our track record.
An analysis is only as good as what feeds it. Here are the real data sources — some public, some paid — and the models trained sport by sport that break down every match to help you decide. No promise of profit: just a clear, evidence-backed read, match after match.
Pinnacle — the market reference — and around ten bookmakers, aggregated through a professional odds API (paid quota). That's what lets us compare our probability with the market's and give you the best price.
Match history, rankings and Pinnacle closing odds (OnCourt subscription data) feed an in-house Elo: a global rating plus surface-specific ratings (hard, clay, grass, indoor), adaptive K-factor and inactivity decay. A raw ranking doesn't capture that; this engine does.
xG (expected goals) feed a goals model (Dixon-Coles) whose probabilities are calibrated league by league and checked over two seasons it had never seen. We derive the probability of every outcome on 7 markets — a distribution, not a hunch.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles (football), surface Elo (tennis), CatBoost + LightGBM (NHL), CatBoost (MLB, WNBA). Each is tested on seasons it had not seen, to rule out look-ahead bias. Where no model beats the line — the NBA — we own it: only a few configurations measured over seven seasons, no model invented for show.
No raw stats to untangle: for every match, a clear, complete analysis — form, rest, head-to-head, absences, context — that turns our models' probabilities into a ready-to-use read, specific to your match. You decide faster and better informed, instead of crunching the numbers yourself.
Some of these sources are free (public Understat xG); the rest are paid and recurring: an OnCourt data subscription, a metered odds API, and compute to retrain every week. That real, measurable cost is what your subscription funds.
Enter your parameters and see the potential profit.
Hypothetical simulation. Past results do not guarantee future results. View our verifiable results.
Yes, 7 days of full Pro access. No credit card required. You can test all features with no commitment whatsoever.
Our AI is 100% proprietary: Machine Learning models (gradient boosting) trained on years of sports data. It is not a simple wrapper around ChatGPT — it is technology developed in-house.
Soccer (40 leagues plus the European cups: match result, double chance, draw no bet, total goals, both teams to score), tennis (ATP and WTA: winner, total and handicap games), NHL (winner, total goals, player trends), NBA (spread and total points), NFL (spread) and MLB (run line, first-5-innings total).
Absolutely. Cancel in one click from your account. You keep access until the end of the paid period.
Coming soon! We are working on notifications via email, WhatsApp and Telegram to alert you of new analyses in real time.
Detailed analyses are published a few hours before game time, once lines have stabilized. You will receive a notification if you enable email alerts.
The Day Pass gives you full access to ProbWin PRO for 24 hours. Ideal for trying the service or on a busy game day. No automatic renewal.
€2.99 for full access, no commitment. See the results for yourself.
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