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Coventry vs Newcastle United prediction: AI analysis & odds

Calibrated probability 🔒 Members only — 7-day free trial
COVCoventry
Coventry
Home
★Follow
Last 5 W L L L L
VS
12/10/2026
Kick-off 21:00 Paris time
NEWNewcastle United
Newcastle United
Away
★Follow
Last 5 W L W D W
Analysis published before kick-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method

Our picks for this match

6 markets analyzed
In this league, 4 verified model reads (market and side) over two test seasons, 2024-25 and 2025-26: the realized rate never fell below the stated probability, within 2 points. Details for members only.
MarketOur readProbabilityOddsStatus
🏆Match result (1X2)
🔒
1 @ 3.22X @ 3.592 @ 2.25
AI Trend
⚽Over/Under 2.5 goals
🔒
+2.5 @ 1.74-2.5 @ 2.18
AI Trend
🛡️Double chance
🔒
—
AI Trend
⚖️Draw no bet (DNB)
🔒
—
AI Trend
🎯Both teams to score
🔒
Yes @ 1.55No @ 2.30
AI Trend
➕Over 1.5 goals
🔒
—
AI Trend
🟨Yellow cards — line 4.5
Lines & odds tracked — dedicated model in the works
—
Over @ 2.33
Soon
🚩Corners — line 9.5
Lines & odds tracked — dedicated model in the works
—
Over @ 1.95
Soon
🔓 Unlock the 6 predictions for this match 7-day free trial · no credit card · verified reads included

How to read: probability = our estimated chances that the scenario happens (calibrated model: stated ≈ realized). "Market" = the probability implied by the odds. When our probability exceeds the market's, the odds pay better than the estimated risk — that's what value means. Official pick = proven edge against the odds; AI Trend = model read, no certified edge. Verified probability = in this league, over two seasons the model had never seen, the realized rate never fell below the stated probability (2-point tolerance). It is a check on the probability, not an edge against the odds: compare it with the “market” probability. Odds: best price from our 14-bookmaker comparator; the “market” probability is the de-vigged consensus of those books. Every settled trend is published in the trends journal.

Most likely scorelines

Our three most likely scorelines for this match, with their probabilities, are reserved for members.
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Coventry-Newcastle United score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →

Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

Picks and recommendations

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GAME CONTEXT

Coventry sit 18th in the table. The club has 0 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, with 0.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Newcastle United sit 9th. The club has 5 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.

Full analysis and verdict

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Line-ups & absences

Official line-ups are published automatically ~1 hour before kick-off — check back before the match or follow a club to get notified.
Injuries & doubts
  • 🩹 H. Wright — Coventry · Muscle Injury
  • 🩹 J. Eccles — Coventry · Injury
  • 🩹 K. Kesler-Hayden — Coventry · Muscle Injury
  • 🩹 J. Latibeaudiere — Coventry · Injury
  • 🩹 L. Woolfenden — Coventry · Knee Injury
  • 🩹 M. van Ewijk — Coventry · Muscle Injury
  • 🩹 D. Burn — Newcastle United · Ankle Injury
  • 🩹 A. Elanga — Newcastle United · Knee Injury
  • 🩹 E. Jaouen — Newcastle United · Muscle Injury
  • 🩹 V. Livramento — Newcastle United · Injury
  • 🩹 Nico — Newcastle United · Injury
  • 🩹 W. Osula — Newcastle United · Foot Injury

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)

Newcastle United STAT Coventry
0.80
xG (L5) ? Expected Goals — buts attendus selon la qualité des occasions créées (5 derniers)
1.09
1.69
xGA (L5) ? Expected Goals Against — buts attendus concédés selon la qualité des tirs subis
1.65
0.90
OSXG For ? Opponent-Strength Adjusted xG — xG ajusté à la force des adversaires rencontrés
0.87
1.4
Buts/Match (L5) ? Buts marqués en moyenne sur les 5 derniers matchs
0.0
2.0
Encaissés (L5) ? Buts concédés en moyenne sur les 5 derniers matchs
2.2
3.0
Tirs cadrés (L5) ? Tirs cadrés par match — proxy d'activité offensive
3.2
0.80
Buts dom/ext ? Moyenne de buts marqués uniquement à domicile (dom.) ou à l'extérieur (ext.)
0.00
60.0%
Over 2.5 (L10) ? Pourcentage de matchs terminés avec 3+ buts sur les 10 derniers
40.0%
70.0%
BTTS (L10) ? Pourcentage de matchs où les deux équipes ont marqué (10 derniers)
0.0%
10.0%
Clean Sheet (L10) ? Pourcentage de matchs sans but encaissé (10 derniers)
0.0%
5
Forme (L5) ? Points accumulés sur les 5 derniers matchs (max 15)
0
CoventryCoventryHOM
Sept. 19, 2026Nottingham Fo… - Coventry0 - 1W
Sept. 16, 2026Coventry - Aston Villa1 - 3L
Sept. 13, 2026Coventry - Brighton0 - 5L
Sept. 5, 2026Manchester Ci… - Coventry1 - 0L
Aug. 29, 2026Coventry - Hull0 - 1L
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedAWY
Sept. 19, 2026Newcastle Uni… - Hull2 - 1W
Sept. 14, 2026Leeds United - Newcastle Uni…4 - 1L
Sept. 8, 2026Millwall - Newcastle Uni…0 - 1W
Sept. 5, 2026Newcastle Uni… - AFC Bournemou…2 - 2D
Aug. 29, 2026Tottenham - Newcastle Uni…0 - 2W

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker 1X2 1 1X2 X 1X2 2 O/U 2.5 OVER O/U 2.5 UNDER O/U 1.5 OVER O/U 1.5 UNDER O/U 3.5 OVER O/U 3.5 UNDER BTTS YES BTTS NO DC 1X DC 12 DC X2 DNB 1 DNB 2
Pinnacle 3.22 3.59 2.25 1.74 2.18 — — 2.77 1.47 — — — — — — —
Bet365 3.20 3.60 2.15 1.67 2.20 1.22 4.33 2.75 1.44 1.57 2.25 1.67 1.28 1.36 2.25 1.57
1xBet 3.29 3.70 2.27 1.75 2.25 1.19 4.25 2.62 1.44 1.55 2.32 1.71 1.32 1.38 — —
William Hill 3.10 3.50 2.15 — — — — — — 1.60 2.25 1.67 1.30 1.36 2.30 1.55
Betfair 3.25 3.60 2.20 1.62 2.20 1.18 4.50 2.63 1.44 1.53 2.45 1.62 1.25 1.33 2.25 1.57
Marathonbet 3.24 3.64 2.23 1.70 2.18 1.19 4.25 2.62 1.44 1.55 2.29 1.71 1.32 1.38 — —
Betano 3.10 3.60 2.22 1.67 2.25 1.22 4.30 2.65 1.50 1.55 2.35 1.70 1.28 1.39 2.22 1.62
BetVictor 3.10 3.60 2.20 1.65 2.07 1.18 4.33 2.53 1.44 1.53 2.30 1.60 1.29 1.33 2.20 1.60
Dafabet 3.15 3.60 2.25 — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Frequently asked questions

Quand se joue Coventry – Newcastle United ?

Le match se joue le 12/10/2026 à 21:00 (heure de Paris).

Où trouver un pronostic pour Coventry – Newcastle United ?

Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.

Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?

Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.

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