Sunderland vs Brighton prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Sunderland-Brighton score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Sunderland sit 14th in the table. The club scores 1.0 goal and concedes 1.2 per game over its last 5 matches, for 7 points out of 15. Brighton sit 3rd. The club scores 2.6 goals and concedes 1.6 per game over its last 5 matches, for 7 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 1.5 goals: our lean goes to this line. Our model expects 1.30 goals for Sunderland and 1.46 for Brighton, 2.76 in total. The 79.3% probability against the 78.1% implied by the odds gives a thin edge, +1.2 pts. Brighton score 2.6 goals per game and have scored in every one of their last 10 matches; Sunderland failed to score in 20% of theirs.
Under 3.5 goals: our lean also goes to this line, which loses at 4 goals. One number cuts against it: recent xG created by the two attacks added together come to 3.86, above the line, and 80% of Brighton's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. That indicator diverges from our model, which expects 2.76 goals; the model probability prevails. Sunderland sit at 50% of matches over 2.5 goals. The 72.3% probability is verified over two test seasons in this league: proof of reliability, neither a guarantee nor an edge over the odds (edge +1.4 pts).
Over 2.5 goals: our model leans to this line (52.4%), but the price does not pay this scenario (53.5% implied). Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win: our model gives Brighton 38.7%, Sunderland 31.7% and the draw 29.6%. The market also sees Brighton as the favorite, with 27.3% for the draw. Our model leans to Brighton, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Away draw no bet: the stake is refunded on a draw and lost if Brighton lose. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw): it wins if either club wins and loses on a draw. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line (58.6%), but the price does not pay this scenario. The probability is verified over two test seasons in this league, proof of reliability and not an edge over the odds. Brighton have scored in every one of their last 10 matches, while Sunderland failed to score in 20% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 goals is a game with 4 goals or more: recent xG created come to 3.86 and 80% of Brighton's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. We accept this risk, because Sunderland score 1.0 goal per game over their last 5 matches and our model expects 1.30 goals for them.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.41, with over 1.5 goals @ 1.28 as support; the other lines are not paid by the odds. These are leans, with no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 H. Diarra — Sunderland · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 R. Mundle — Sunderland · Knee Injury
- 🩹 D. Ballard — Sunderland · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 B. Brobbey — Sunderland · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 E. Ferguson — Brighton · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 Y. Minteh — Brighton · Injury
- 🩹 S. Tzimas — Brighton · Knee Injury
- 🩹 F. Azeez — Brighton · Abdominal strain
- 🩹 L. Dunk — Brighton · Neck Injury
- 🩹 J. Hinshelwood — Brighton · Injury
- 🩹 K. Mitoma — Brighton · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 P. Struijk — Brighton · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Brighton
STAT
Sunderland
SunderlandHOMBrightonAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Sunderland – Brighton ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 16:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Sunderland – Brighton ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
