Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Chelsea-AFC Bournemouth score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Chelsea sit 10th in the table. Chelsea score 2.2 goals per game and concede 2.2 over their last 5 matches, with 7 points out of 15. AFC Bournemouth sit 17th. AFC Bournemouth score 1.4 goals per game and concede 1.6 over their last 5 matches, with 4 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: Our lean goes to this line at 1.76. Our probability is 66.5% against 56.8% implied, an edge of +9.7 pts. The probability is verified over two test seasons of the league, which speaks to its reliability but is neither a guarantee nor an edge over the odds. Our model expects 2.05 goals from Chelsea and 1.12 from AFC Bournemouth, a total of 3.17 that sits close to the line. Recent xG created by the two attacks (2.94) is below the line. Some data runs against it: 80% of Chelsea's last 10 matches went past 2.5 goals, and the club both scores and concedes 2.2 goals per game over its last 5. The bet loses at 4 goals.
Over 2.5 goals: Our model leans to this line at 1.51, with a 61.8% probability against 66.2% implied (-4.4 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: Our model leans to this line at 1.16, with an 84.6% probability against 86.2% implied (-1.6 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. The bet loses at 0 or 1 goal.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: Our lean goes to a Chelsea win at 1.79. Our probability is 56.4% against 55.9% implied, a thin edge (+0.5 pts). Our model gives 26.4% to the draw and 17.2% to AFC Bournemouth. The market also makes Chelsea favorite, with the draw at 23.1%. The xG gap of 0.04 is close to nil; the model probability stands.
Home draw no bet: Our lean goes to this line at 1.33, with 76.7% probability against 75.2% implied: a thin edge (+1.5 pts). The stake is returned on a draw and lost if AFC Bournemouth win.
Double chance 1X (home or draw): Our lean goes to this line at 1.24, with 82.8% probability against 80.6% implied: a thin edge (+2.2 pts). Two outcomes out of three are covered; only an AFC Bournemouth win loses the bet.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: Our model leans to this line at 1.50, with a 61.7% probability against 66.7% implied (-5.0 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. Chelsea failed to score in 20% of their last 10 matches, AFC Bournemouth in 20% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks the Chelsea win is an open game where AFC Bournemouth take at least a point: Chelsea concede 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches and have kept no clean sheet in their last 10. We accept that risk, because Chelsea themselves score 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Our lean goes to a Chelsea win at 1.79 and to under 3.5 goals at 1.76, with no firm bet. The lines with a negative edge remain readings only; no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 J. Kluivert — AFC Bournemouth · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 V. Milosavljevic — AFC Bournemouth · Injury
- 🩹 J. Gittens — Chelsea · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 R. James — Chelsea · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 Joao Pedro — Chelsea · Knee Injury
- 🩹 C. Palmer — Chelsea · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. Caicedo — Chelsea · Calf Injury
- 🩹 E. Emegha — Chelsea · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. Palestra — Chelsea · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 J. Araujo — AFC Bournemouth · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 E. J. Kroupi — AFC Bournemouth · Foot Injury
- 🩹 A. Scott — AFC Bournemouth · Thigh Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
AFC Bournemouth
STAT
Chelsea
ChelseaHOMAFC BournemouthAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 16:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
