Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Aston Villa-Brentford score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
GAME CONTEXT
Aston Villa sit 16th in the table. Aston Villa score 0.6 goals per game and concede 1.6 over their last 5 matches, with 4 points out of 15. Brentford sit 4th. Brentford score 1.6 goals per game and concede 1.0 over their last 5 matches, with 7 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: Our lean goes to this line at 1.50. Our probability is 69.6% against 66.7% implied, an edge of +2.9 pts. The probability is verified over two test seasons of the league, which speaks to its reliability but is neither a guarantee nor an edge over the odds. Our model expects 1.44 goals from Aston Villa and 1.44 from Brentford. Recent xG created by the two attacks (3.03) sits below the line. Against this read, 70% of Aston Villa's last 10 matches and 60% of Brentford's went past 2.5 goals. The bet loses at 4 goals.
Over 2.5 goals: Our model leans to this line at 1.77, with a 55.2% probability against 56.5% implied (-1.3 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: Our model leans to this line at 1.23, with an 80.7% probability against 81.3% implied (-0.6 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. The bet loses at 0 or 1 goal.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: Our model leans to Aston Villa at 2.76, with a 35.7% probability against 36.2% implied (-0.5 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. Our model gives 28.9% to the draw and 35.5% to Brentford, so the balance of power is even. The market also sees an open contest, with the draw at 27.1%. The xG gap of -0.45 for Aston Villa diverges slightly; the model probability stands.
Home draw no bet: Our model leans to this line at 1.96, with a 50.1% probability against 51.0% implied (-0.9 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost if Brentford win.
Double chance 12 (no draw): Our model leans to this line at 1.34, with a 71.1% probability against 74.6% implied (-3.5 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. The bet loses on a draw.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: Our model leans to this line at 1.57, with a 60.3% probability against 63.7% implied (-3.4 pts): the price does not pay this scenario. Brentford scored in all of their last 10 matches, but Aston Villa failed to score in 60% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 goals is an open game with 4 goals or more: Aston Villa concede 1.6 goals per game over their last 5 matches, and 70% of their last 10 matches went past 2.5 goals. We accept that risk, because Aston Villa score 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 matches and failed to score in 60% of their last 10.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals at 1.50, with no firm bet. The other lines, all with a negative edge, remain readings only; no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 M. Cisse — Aston Villa · Injury
- 🩹 A. Milambo — Brentford · Knock
- 🩹 I. Maatsen — Aston Villa · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 A. Onana — Aston Villa · Knee Injury
- 🩹 M. Cash — Aston Villa · Leg Injury
- 🩹 L. Goretzka — Aston Villa · Knee Injury
- 🩹 K. Furo — Brentford · Surgery
- 🩹 S. van den Berg — Brentford · Injury
- 🩹 N. Collins — Brentford · Calf Injury
- 🩹 M. Damsgaard — Brentford · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 J. Dasilva — Brentford · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. Jensen — Brentford · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Brentford
STAT
Aston Villa
Aston VillaHOMBrentfordAWYHead-to-Head
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, line-ups, injuries, referee and odds from 11 bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Aston Villa – Brentford ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 16:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Aston Villa – Brentford ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
