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WAS @ CHI WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
WASWAS
Washington Mystics
Away · 24W-16L
VS
2026-09-17
Wintrust Arena · Chicago, IL
CHICHI
Chicago Sky
Home · 14W-26L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 163.0 1.92
Under 163.0 1.87
WAS 1.93 1.5
CHI 1.88 -1.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 163.0
Model confidence94 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+5.2 %
Odds
1.92
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 17/09 à 16:02 — odds at the time: 1.92 (CLV tracking)

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
94%
Net Rating+4.2 vs -6.5WAS away · CHI home
Pace79.1 vs 83.8possessions / game
Projected total168.2vs line 163.0
Model confidence94%OVER 163.0
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 163.0 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Chicago Sky (14-26) reçoit Washington Mystics (24-16) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

CHI: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
WAS: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Washington Mystics (10.7 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 163.0. Modèle prédit 168.2 pts (5.2 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-0.7 pts
Rest (away / home)
20dvs19d
Net Rating
+4.2vs-6.5
Pace
79.1vs83.8
Rest advantage
-1d home
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Head-to-Head

4WAS
CHI1
02/06/26CHI @ WAS72 – 90
05/08/25WAS @ CHI64 – 78
29/07/25CHI @ WAS86 – 103
08/07/25CHI @ WAS79 – 81
17/06/25WAS @ CHI79 – 72

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

WAS STAT CHI
108.9
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
102.6
101.7
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
107.4
+7.2
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-4.8
80.0
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
84.3
54.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
50.0%
15.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
14.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was WAS @ CHI played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-09-17.

Where can I find the prediction for WAS @ CHI?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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