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SEA @ PHO WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
SEASEA
Seattle Storm
Away · 8W-36L
VS
2026-07-02
Footprint Center · Phoenix, AZ
PHOPHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home · 16W-28L
Analysis published before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 168.0 1.93
Under 168.0 1.89
SEA 1.88 -4.0
PHO 1.97 4.0
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official pick UNDER 168.0
Model confidence70 %
Odds
1.89
Market
Totals O/U
Taken on 02/07 · 20:51 at odds of 1.89

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
70%
Net Rating-5.0 vs -0.7SEA away · PHO home
Pace81.6 vs 80.0possessions / game
Projected total169.2vs line 168.0
Model confidence70%UNDER 168.0
View full analysis

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Phoenix (7-13) recoit Seattle (5-15) au Mortgage Matchup Center dans un duel entre deux formations en difficulte cette saison. Les Mercury sortent d'une victoire convaincante face a Toronto (89-80), portees par Kahleah Copper (27 points). Les Storm, malgre un succes recent contre Atlanta (105-90), restent 2-8 sur leurs 10 derniers matchs.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

● PHO : Noemie Brochant (cheville) OUT
● SEA : Taina Mair OUT (decision du coach), Ezi Magbegor (pied) probable

NOTRE ANALYSE

Ce match reunit deux des attaques les moins productives de la ligue. Seattle affiche un OffRtg de 98.07, le plus faible de cette affiche, tandis que Phoenix plafonne a 103.43. Le pace est egalement tres lent des deux cotes (79.8 pour Phoenix, 81.1 pour Seattle), nettement sous la moyenne WNBA (90-95). Le modele projette un total a 165.4, soit 2.6 points sous la ligne de 168. Avec des quart-temps de 10 minutes en WNBA et un nombre de possessions reduit par ce pace, les conditions sont reunies pour un match a faible scoring.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

● Magbegor (probable) pourrait contribuer en attaque si elle joue sans restriction — a surveiller.
● Copper (PHO) est capable de hot streaks individuels qui peuvent a eux seuls tirer le total vers le haut.
Verdict Probwin

Conviction moderee. Le profil offensif limite des deux equipes et un pace tres lent constituent le socle de ce pick. L'edge de 2.6 points est modeste, mais la probabilite estimee a 92% traduit la regularite historique de ce signal. Risque : modere.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
Neutral
Rest (away / home)
5dvs5d
Net Rating
-5.0vs-0.7
Pace
81.6vs80.0
Rest advantage
Even
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Head-to-Head

2SEA
PHO3
20/06/26SEA @ PHO73 – 93
03/06/26PHO @ SEA72 – 68
17/08/25PHO @ SEA85 – 82
07/06/25SEA @ PHO89 – 77
23/05/25PHO @ SEA70 – 77

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

SEA STAT PHO
98.1
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
103.4
108.4
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
109.5
-10.4
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-6.1
81.1
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
79.8
49.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
51.0%
15.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
16.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was SEA @ PHO played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-07-02.

Where can I find the prediction for SEA @ PHO?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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