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PHO @ WAS WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
PHOPHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away · 15W-26L
VS
2026-08-09
Capital One Arena · Washington, DC
WASWAS
Washington Mystics
Home · 24W-16L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 169.0 1.91
Under 169.0 1.88
PHO 1.93 -1.0
WAS 1.89 1.0
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 169.0
Model confidence94 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+6.0 %
Odds
1.91
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 09/08 à 16:02 — odds at the time: 1.91 (CLV tracking)

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
94%
Net Rating-8.4 vs +2.6PHO away · WAS home
Pace81.7 vs 78.8possessions / game
Projected total175.0vs line 169.0
Model confidence94%OVER 169.0
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 169.0 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Washington Mystics (24-16) reçoit Phoenix Mercury (15-26) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

WAS: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
PHO: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Washington Mystics (11.0 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 169.0. Modèle prédit 174.9 pts (6.0 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-1.6 pts
Rest (away / home)
2dvs2d
Net Rating
-8.4vs+2.6
Pace
81.7vs78.8
Rest advantage
Even
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Head-to-Head

4PHO
WAS1
04/09/25PHO @ WAS75 – 69
27/07/25PHO @ WAS88 – 72
25/05/25WAS @ PHO62 – 68
05/09/24WAS @ PHO90 – 77
16/07/24PHO @ WAS96 – 87

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

PHO STAT WAS
104.3
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
101.8
113.1
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
102.4
-8.8
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-0.6
81.7
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
77.2
52.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
46.0%
14.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
15.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was PHO @ WAS played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-08-09.

Where can I find the prediction for PHO @ WAS?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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