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PHO @ POR WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
PHOPHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away · 15W-26L
VS
2026-06-05
PORPOR
Portland Fire
Home · 16W-24L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 161.0 1.91
Under 161.0 1.91
PHO 1.93 -2.5
POR 1.89 2.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official UNDER 161.0
Model confidence78 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+4.5 %
Odds
1.91
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 05/06 à 20:50 — odds at the time: 1.91 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend POR -2.5
Model confidence56 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+0.4 %
Odds
1.89
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
78%
Net Rating-9.7 vs -3.6PHO away · POR home
Pace80.9 vs 80.0possessions / game
Projected total165.2vs line 161.0
Model confidence78%UNDER 161.0
View full analysis

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Phoenix (3-8) se deplace a Portland (6-5) pour la premiere confrontation historique entre ces deux franchises. Le Fire, equipe d'expansion en premiere saison, realise un debut de campagne impressionnant. Le Mercury a interrompu une serie de six defaites face a Seattle (72-68) mais arrive diminue dans l'Oregon.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

Phoenix : Kahleah Copper OUT (genou gauche, 4-6 semaines, 18.2 PPG), Alyssa Thomas questionable/probable OUT (mollet gauche, 15.0 PPG), Natasha Mack OUT (dos), Megan McConnell OUT (genou droit)
Portland : Aucune absence majeure signalee

NOTRE ANALYSE

TOTALS : Le modele initial pointait vers OVER mais l'analyse contextuelle impose un renversement. Phoenix est potentiellement prive de ses deux meilleures scoreuses : Copper (18.2 PPG, OUT confirme 4-6 semaines) et Thomas (15.0 PPG, absente la veille face a Golden State). C'est 33+ points par match de production qui disparaissent du roster. Meme avec redistribution aux autres joueuses, un effectif de Mercury aussi diminue ne peut raisonnablement atteindre 80 points. Portland joue un pace lent (80.6 possessions/match) et n'a aucun interet a forcer le tempo face a une equipe diminuee. La derniere victoire de Phoenix (72-68 face a Seattle) demontre deja le plafond offensif actuel de cette equipe.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Si Thomas joue finalement, l'impact est reduit mais le pick reste valable (Copper absente longue duree)
Portland en premiere saison dispose de donnees limitees, l'incertitude est plus grande
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte. L'absence confirmee de Copper pour 4-6 semaines et le statut tres incertain de Thomas creent un gouffre offensif pour Phoenix. La ligne de 161 est deja basse mais insuffisamment ajustee a la realite du roster Mercury. Risque faible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
Neutral
Rest (away / home)
2dvs3d
Net Rating
-9.7vs-3.6
Pace
80.9vs80.0
Rest advantage
+1d home
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Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

PHO STAT POR
102.1
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
102.9
108.7
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
104.4
-6.6
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-1.4
81.2
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
80.6
48.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
53.0%
14.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
18.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was PHO @ POR played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-06-05.

Where can I find the prediction for PHO @ POR?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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