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PHO @ GSV WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
PHOPHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away · 15W-26L
VS
2026-05-10
Chase Center · San Francisco, CA
GSVGSV
Golden State Valkyries
Home · 29W-11L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 157.0 1.88
Under 157.0 1.93
PHO 1.87 -2.0
GSV 1.94 2.0
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 157.0
Model confidence95 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+6.8 %
Odds
1.88
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 10/05 à 16:01 — odds at the time: 1.88 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend PHO -2.0
Model confidence30 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.94
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
95%
Net Rating+7.0 vs +1.1PHO away · GSV home
Pace81.1 vs 76.5possessions / game
Projected total168.2vs line 157.0
Model confidence95%OVER 157.0
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 157.0 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Golden State Valkyries (29-11) reçoit Phoenix Mercury (15-26) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

GSV: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
PHO: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Phoenix Mercury (5.9 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 157.0. Modèle prédit 168.2 pts (6.8 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

PHO sort d'un back-to-back, fatigue probable sur le 4e quart-temps
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
+0.4 pts
Rest (away / home)
1d B2Bvs2d
Net Rating
+7.0vs+1.1
Pace
81.1vs76.5
Rest advantage
+1d home
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Head-to-Head

4PHO
GSV1
22/08/25GSV @ PHO72 – 81
19/08/25PHO @ GSV98 – 91
14/07/25PHO @ GSV78 – 77
05/06/25GSV @ PHO77 – 86
11/05/25GSV @ PHO84 – 79

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

PHO STAT GSV
98.0
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
99.3
97.5
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
98.1
+0.6
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
+1.2
80.5
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
76.0
48.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
50.0%
14.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
17.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was PHO @ GSV played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-05-10.

Where can I find the prediction for PHO @ GSV?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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