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PHO @ LVA WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
PHOPHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away · 15W-26L
VS
2026-05-09
LVALVA
Las Vegas Aces
Home · 28W-14L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 167.0 1.92
Under 167.0 1.90
PHO 1.93 -8.5
LVA 1.88 8.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official UNDER 167.0
Model confidence92 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
-2.8 %
Odds
1.90
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 10/05 à 16:01 — odds at the time: 1.90 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend PHO -8.5
Model confidence54 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.88
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
92%
Net Rating+0.6 vs +7.4PHO away · LVA home
Pace80.5 vs 80.1possessions / game
Projected total158.4vs line 167.0
Model confidence92%UNDER 167.0
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: UNDER 167.0 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Las Vegas Aces (28-14) reçoit Phoenix Mercury (15-26) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

LVA: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
PHO: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Las Vegas Aces (6.8 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : UNDER retenu sur la ligne 167.0. Modèle prédit 158.4 pts (2.8 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction modérée sur le pick officiel. Niveau de risque modéré. À surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-1.4 pts
Rest (away / home)
30dvs6d
Net Rating
+0.6vs+7.4
Pace
80.5vs80.1
Rest advantage
-24d home
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Head-to-Head

0PHO
LVA5
08/10/25LVA @ PHO90 – 88
05/10/25PHO @ LVA78 – 91
03/10/25PHO @ LVA86 – 89
21/08/25PHO @ LVA61 – 83
15/08/25LVA @ PHO86 – 83

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

PHO STAT LVA
98.8
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
110.1
97.6
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
99.8
+1.1
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
+10.4
80.2
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
80.1
49.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
55.0%
14.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
13.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was PHO @ LVA played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-05-09.

Where can I find the prediction for PHO @ LVA?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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