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NYL @ WAS WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
NYLNYL
New York Liberty
Away · 25W-16L
VS
2026-05-10
Capital One Arena · Washington, DC
WASWAS
Washington Mystics
Home · 24W-16L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 164.5 1.89
Under 164.5 1.93
NYL 1.88 5.5
WAS 1.93 -5.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 164.5
Model confidence94 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+5.6 %
Odds
1.89
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 10/05 à 16:01 — odds at the time: 1.89 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend WAS +5.5
Model confidence60 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.93
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
94%
Net Rating+4.6 vs -18.7NYL away · WAS home
Pace77.4 vs 77.4possessions / game
Projected total166.3vs line 164.5
Model confidence94%OVER 164.5
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 164.5 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Washington Mystics (24-16) reçoit New York Liberty (25-16) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

WAS: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
NYL: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers New York Liberty (23.3 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 164.5. Modèle prédit 166.3 pts (5.6 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-1.6 pts
Rest (away / home)
2dvs7d
Net Rating
+4.6vs-18.7
Pace
77.4vs77.4
Rest advantage
+5d home
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Head-to-Head

5NYL
WAS0
09/09/25WAS @ NYL66 – 75
28/08/25WAS @ NYL63 – 89
05/06/25NYL @ WAS86 – 78
30/05/25NYL @ WAS85 – 63
17/09/24NYL @ WAS87 – 71

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

NYL STAT WAS
98.0
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
93.2
97.2
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
109.3
+0.8
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-16.1
75.9
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
77.3
49.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
48.0%
16.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
16.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was NYL @ WAS played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-05-10.

Where can I find the prediction for NYL @ WAS?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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