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MIN @ CON WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
MINMIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away · 33W-13L
VS
2026-09-20
Mohegan Sun Arena · Uncasville, CT
CONCON
Connecticut Sun
Home · 11W-33L
Analysis published before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 165.5 1.92
Under 165.5 1.87
MIN 1.93 17.5
CON 1.89 -17.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official pick OVER 165.5
Model confidence98 %
Odds
1.92
Market
Totals O/U
Taken on 20/09 · 16:02 at odds of 1.92

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
98%
Net Rating+3.5 vs -23.4MIN away · CON home
Pace80.1 vs 81.8possessions / game
Projected total176.0vs line 165.5
Model confidence98%OVER 165.5
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 165.5 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Connecticut Sun (11-33) reçoit Minnesota Lynx (33-13) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

● CON: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
● MIN: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Minnesota Lynx (26.9 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 165.5. Modèle prédit 176.0 pts (10.5 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

● Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
+4.7 pts
Rest (away / home)
2dvs3d
Net Rating
+3.5vs-23.4
Pace
80.1vs81.8
Rest advantage
+1d home
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Head-to-Head

4MIN
CON1
08/07/26MIN @ CON86 – 80
06/07/26CON @ MIN90 – 89
30/08/25MIN @ CON94 – 70
29/06/25CON @ MIN63 – 102
23/05/25CON @ MIN70 – 76

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

MIN STAT CON
114.0
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
92.7
104.9
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
109.8
+9.0
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-17.1
79.5
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
81.8
57.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
45.0%
13.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
14.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was MIN @ CON played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-09-20.

Where can I find the prediction for MIN @ CON?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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