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MIN @ PHO WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
MINMIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away · 31W-9L
VS
2026-05-12
Footprint Center · Phoenix, AZ
PHOPHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home · 15W-26L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 170.0 1.95
Under 170.0 1.87
MIN 1.93 -4.0
PHO 1.88 4.0
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 170.0
Model confidence96 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+8.0 %
Odds
1.95
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 13/05 à 16:01 — odds at the time: 1.95 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend MIN -4.0
Model confidence64 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.88
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
96%
Net Rating+4.9 vs +6.7MIN away · PHO home
Pace79.6 vs 80.9possessions / game
Projected total171.2vs line 170.0
Model confidence96%OVER 170.0
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 170.0 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Phoenix Mercury (15-26) reçoit Minnesota Lynx (31-9) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

PHO: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
MIN: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Phoenix Mercury (1.8 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 170.0. Modèle prédit 171.2 pts (8.0 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-0.1 pts
Rest (away / home)
3dvs2d
Net Rating
+4.9vs+6.7
Pace
79.6vs80.9
Rest advantage
-1d home
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Head-to-Head

2MIN
PHO3
28/09/25MIN @ PHO81 – 86
26/09/25MIN @ PHO76 – 84
23/09/25PHO @ MIN89 – 83
21/09/25PHO @ MIN69 – 82
16/07/25PHO @ MIN66 – 79

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

MIN STAT PHO
101.5
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
100.2
97.5
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
93.2
+4.0
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
+7.0
78.8
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
81.1
51.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
49.0%
13.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
12.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was MIN @ PHO played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-05-12.

Where can I find the prediction for MIN @ PHO?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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