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LVA @ SEA WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
LVALVA
Las Vegas Aces
Away · 28W-14L
VS
2026-09-17
Climate Pledge Arena · Seattle, WA
SEASEA
Seattle Storm
Home · 8W-33L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 173.5 1.84
Under 173.5 1.95
LVA 1.96 10.5
SEA 1.86 -10.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 173.5
Model confidence94 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+5.2 %
Odds
1.84
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 17/09 à 16:02 — odds at the time: 1.84 (CLV tracking)

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
94%
Net Rating+5.7 vs -7.9LVA away · SEA home
Pace80.8 vs 85.8possessions / game
Projected total178.7vs line 173.5
Model confidence94%OVER 173.5
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 173.5 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Seattle Storm (8-33) reçoit Las Vegas Aces (28-14) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

SEA: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
LVA: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Las Vegas Aces (13.7 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 173.5. Modèle prédit 178.7 pts (5.2 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-1.8 pts
Rest (away / home)
20dvs18d
Net Rating
+5.7vs-7.9
Pace
80.8vs85.8
Rest advantage
-2d home
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Head-to-Head

4LVA
SEA1
08/06/26SEA @ LVA91 – 101
18/09/25SEA @ LVA73 – 74
16/09/25LVA @ SEA83 – 86
14/09/25SEA @ LVA77 – 102
08/08/25SEA @ LVA86 – 90

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

LVA STAT SEA
109.0
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
101.8
106.0
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
108.8
+3.0
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-7.0
81.5
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
84.6
53.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
48.0%
14.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
13.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was LVA @ SEA played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-09-17.

Where can I find the prediction for LVA @ SEA?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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