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LVA @ CON WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
LVALVA
Las Vegas Aces
Away · 28W-14L
VS
2026-05-15
Mohegan Sun Arena · Uncasville, CT
CONCON
Connecticut Sun
Home · 10W-31L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 170.5 1.85
Under 170.5 1.97
LVA 1.92 15.5
CON 1.90 -15.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 170.5
Model confidence100 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+14.2 %
Odds
1.85
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 16/05 à 16:01 — odds at the time: 1.85 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend CON +15.5
Model confidence37 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.90
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
100%
Net Rating+6.8 vs -23.3LVA away · CON home
Pace82.2 vs 81.1possessions / game
Projected total178.5vs line 170.5
Model confidence100%OVER 170.5
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 170.5 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Connecticut Sun (10-31) reçoit Las Vegas Aces (28-14) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

CON: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
LVA: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Las Vegas Aces (30.1 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 170.5. Modèle prédit 178.5 pts (14.2 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
+5.5 pts
Rest (away / home)
2dvs2d
Net Rating
+6.8vs-23.3
Pace
82.2vs81.1
Rest advantage
Even
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Head-to-Head

5LVA
CON0
13/05/26LVA @ CON98 – 69
10/08/25CON @ LVA86 – 94
06/07/25LVA @ CON86 – 68
25/06/25CON @ LVA59 – 85
20/05/25LVA @ CON87 – 62

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

LVA STAT CON
104.2
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
94.1
100.6
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
114.6
+3.6
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-20.4
81.7
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
80.1
53.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
45.0%
14.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
15.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was LVA @ CON played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-05-15.

Where can I find the prediction for LVA @ CON?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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