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LVA @ LAS WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
LVALVA
Las Vegas Aces
Away · 28W-14L
VS
2026-05-10
Crypto.com Arena · Los Angeles, CA
LASLAS
Los Angeles Sparks
Home · 15W-26L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 176.5 1.92
Under 176.5 1.90
LVA 1.91 2.5
LAS 1.91 -2.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 176.5
Model confidence94 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+6.2 %
Odds
1.92
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 10/05 à 16:01 — odds at the time: 1.92 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend LVA +2.5
Model confidence60 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.91
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
94%
Net Rating-0.2 vs -5.4LVA away · LAS home
Pace80.7 vs 82.4possessions / game
Projected total185.2vs line 176.5
Model confidence94%OVER 176.5
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 176.5 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Los Angeles Sparks (15-26) reçoit Las Vegas Aces (28-14) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

LAS: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
LVA: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Las Vegas Aces (5.2 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 176.5. Modèle prédit 185.2 pts (6.2 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

LVA sort d'un back-to-back, fatigue probable sur le 4e quart-temps
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-5.9 pts
Rest (away / home)
1d B2Bvs30d
Net Rating
-0.2vs-5.4
Pace
80.7vs82.4
Rest advantage
+29d home
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Head-to-Head

4LVA
LAS1
11/09/25LVA @ LAS103 – 75
29/07/25LVA @ LAS89 – 74
11/06/25LAS @ LVA97 – 89
30/05/25LAS @ LVA81 – 96
18/08/24LAS @ LVA71 – 87

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

LVA STAT LAS
108.1
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
108.0
100.7
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
110.1
+7.4
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-2.1
80.1
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
80.3
54.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
49.0%
13.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
0.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was LVA @ LAS played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-05-10.

Where can I find the prediction for LVA @ LAS?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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