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LVA @ PHO WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
LVALVA
Las Vegas Aces
Away · 28W-14L
VS
2025-10-08
Footprint Center · Phoenix, AZ
PHOPHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home · 15W-26L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 164.0 1.90
Under 164.0 1.92
LVA 1.96 -3.5
PHO 1.86 3.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official UNDER 164.0
Model confidence92 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
-3.4 %
Odds
1.92
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 05/01 à 12:59 — odds at the time: 1.92 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend LVA -3.5
Model confidence47 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.86
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
92%
Net Rating+10.4 vs +1.1LVA away · PHO home
Pace80.1 vs 80.2possessions / game
Projected total160.0vs line 164.0
Model confidence92%UNDER 164.0
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: UNDER 164.0 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Phoenix Mercury (15-26) reçoit Las Vegas Aces (28-14) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

PHO: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
LVA: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Las Vegas Aces (9.2 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : UNDER retenu sur la ligne 164.0. Modèle prédit 160.0 pts (3.4 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction modérée sur le pick officiel. Niveau de risque modéré. À surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-0.1 pts
Rest (away / home)
3dvs3d
Net Rating
+10.4vs+1.1
Pace
80.1vs80.2
Rest advantage
Even
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Head-to-Head

5LVA
PHO0
05/10/25PHO @ LVA78 – 91
03/10/25PHO @ LVA86 – 89
21/08/25PHO @ LVA61 – 83
15/08/25LVA @ PHO86 – 83
29/06/25LVA @ PHO84 – 81

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

LVA STAT PHO
110.1
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
98.8
99.8
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
97.6
+10.4
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
+1.1
80.1
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
80.2
55.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
49.0%
13.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
14.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was LVA @ PHO played?

This WNBA game was played on 2025-10-08.

Where can I find the prediction for LVA @ PHO?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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