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LAS @ CON WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
LASLAS
Los Angeles Sparks
Away · 15W-26L
VS
2026-08-18
Mohegan Sun Arena · Uncasville, CT
CONCON
Connecticut Sun
Home · 10W-31L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 169.0 1.88
Under 169.0 1.90
LAS 1.95 1.5
CON 1.87 -1.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 169.0
Model confidence97 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+9.7 %
Odds
1.88
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 18/08 à 16:02 — odds at the time: 1.88 (CLV tracking)

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
97%
Net Rating-6.2 vs -11.3LAS away · CON home
Pace83.6 vs 82.1possessions / game
Projected total178.7vs line 169.0
Model confidence97%OVER 169.0
View full analysis
Nos Picks
Total: OVER 169.0 Confiance: 65%

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Connecticut Sun (10-31) reçoit Los Angeles Sparks (15-26) en saison régulière WNBA.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

CON: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi
LAS: rapport de blessure à confirmer avant le coup d'envoi

NOTRE ANALYSE

Spread : le modèle penche vers Los Angeles Sparks (5.2 pts de marge attendue), tendance modérée sans validation officielle.

Total : OVER retenu sur la ligne 169.0. Modèle prédit 178.7 pts (9.7 pts d'edge). En WNBA, le sweet spot du modèle reste l'OVER lorsque l'edge dépasse 5 pts — les résultats live confirment cette force.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Pas de risque structurel identifié par le modèle
Verdict Probwin

Conviction forte sur le pick OVER : edge largement au-dessus du seuil de 5 pts, sweet spot historique du modèle WNBA. Niveau de risque modéré, à surveiller : rapport de blessures juste avant le coup d'envoi. Analyse générée automatiquement à partir des features ProbWin (rolling 10 matchs, repos, pace, Net Rating). Les jours de match, l'analyse rédigée par notre analyste la remplace en soirée dès qu'elle est disponible.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
+5.5 pts
Rest (away / home)
3dvs3d
Net Rating
-6.2vs-11.3
Pace
83.6vs82.1
Rest advantage
Even
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Head-to-Head

3LAS
CON2
30/05/26LAS @ CON81 – 84
07/08/25CON @ LAS91 – 102
24/07/25LAS @ CON101 – 86
13/07/25CON @ LAS88 – 92
10/09/24CON @ LAS86 – 66

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

LAS STAT CON
105.3
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
95.2
111.5
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
108.6
-6.2
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-13.4
84.1
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
81.8
55.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
48.0%
16.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
17.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was LAS @ CON played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-08-18.

Where can I find the prediction for LAS @ CON?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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