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ATL @ WAS WNBA prediction: AI analysis

WNBA · Regular Season
ATLATL
Atlanta Dream
Away · 27W-14L
VS
2026-07-02
Capital One Arena · Washington, DC
WASWAS
Washington Mystics
Home · 24W-16L
Analysis due before tip-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Over 166.5 1.91
Under 166.5 1.91
ATL 1.91 6.5
WAS 1.94 -6.5
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

Official OVER 166.5
Model confidence72 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
+3.6 %
Odds
1.91
Market
Totals O/U
Pick taken on 02/07 à 20:51 — odds at the time: 1.91 (CLV tracking)
AI Trend ATL +6.5
Model confidence56 %
CautiousHigh
Edge vs market
Odds
1.94
Market
Spread

Our Expert Analysis

PRO
Confidence
72%
Net Rating+3.7 vs -4.7ATL away · WAS home
Pace83.1 vs 80.7possessions / game
Projected total171.3vs line 166.5
Model confidence72%OVER 166.5
View full analysis

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Washington (9-9) accueille Atlanta (12-7) au CareFirst Arena. Les Mystics viennent de signer une victoire historique en quadruple prolongation face a Portland (124-123), retrouvant le .500. Les Dream, meilleures de la Conference Est, traversent un passage plus difficile avec trois defaites consecutives, dont une lourde a Seattle (90-105).

ABSENCES NOTABLES

WAS : Sonia Citron (genou) questionable, Georgia Amoore (genou) questionable
ATL : Aucune absence signalee

NOTRE ANALYSE

Le modele projette un total a 170.1 points, soit un ecart de 3.6 points au-dessus de la ligne. Atlanta dispose du meilleur rating offensif de ce plateau (109.35 sur les 10 derniers matchs) et d'un pace a 82.5, le plus eleve de cette affiche. Lors de leur dernier H2H le 6 juin, le cumul atteignait 186 points (109-77). Meme si Washington reste en dessous de la moyenne offensive (97.28 OffRtg), le rythme impose par les Dream devrait tirer le score vers le haut. Les 4-5 jours de repos pour les deux equipes ecartent tout facteur de fatigue.

POINTS DE VIGILANCE

Si Citron et Amoore (WAS) sont finalement absentes, l'attaque des Mystics pourrait flechir et comprimer le total.
Les Dream, sur une serie negative, pourraient opter pour un jeu plus controle, freinant le pace en fin de match.
Verdict Probwin

Conviction moderee. L'attaque d'Atlanta reste le moteur principal de ce pick, avec un edge de 3.6 points et une probabilite estimee a 92%. Le dernier H2H valide nettement le scenario OVER. Risque : modere.

Key Factors

HCA Edge
-1.6 pts
Rest (away / home)
5dvs4d
Net Rating
+3.7vs-4.7
Pace
83.1vs80.7
Rest advantage
-1d home
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Head-to-Head

4ATL
WAS1
06/06/26WAS @ ATL77 – 109
03/08/25WAS @ ATL83 – 99
20/06/25WAS @ ATL91 – 92
15/06/25ATL @ WAS89 – 56
16/05/25ATL @ WAS90 – 94

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

6 of 45 model features (last 5-10 games)

ATL STAT WAS
109.3
Off Rating ? Points marqués pour 100 possessions
97.3
104.5
Def Rating ? Points concédés pour 100 possessions
100.2
+4.9
Net Rating ? Différentiel Off Rating - Def Rating
-3.0
82.5
Pace ? Nombre de possessions par match
81.2
49.0%
eFG% ? Effective FG% - Efficacité au tir (3pts comptent 1.5x)
48.0%
11.0%
TOV% ? Pourcentage de pertes de balle par possession
18.0%

Frequently asked questions

When was ATL @ WAS played?

This WNBA game was played on 2026-07-02.

Where can I find the prediction for ATL @ WAS?

This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (totals and spreads), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our WNBA statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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