US Open 2026 Predictions
Congratulations to Alexander Zverev (GER) — US Open champion, beating Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(2) 5-7 6-2 in the final. 🎉
Congratulations to Elena Rybakina (KAZ) — US Open champion, beating Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 5-7 6-2 in the final. 🎉
ProbWin at this tournament
Official picks published before each match, settled on the final result — every one of them, wins and losses, is in the open journal.
Are our favourites holding up?
Before a ball was struck, our simulation named these title contenders. Here's how they're doing — 2 of our 12 top picks still in the draw, and 1 already out in the opening rounds.
Pre-tournament title probabilities — faithfully rebuilt by replaying our deterministic simulation on the pre-tournament state, winners and upsets alike.
The road to the final
From the round of 16 to the title — the draw rebuilds itself live. Winners in bold, projected paths (“A / B”) fill in as earlier rounds finish; match-ups we've picked are flagged.
Men's singlesWhat we predicted
Our pre-tournament favourites (Monte-Carlo on surface Elo) — versus who actually lifted the trophy.
The favourite doesn't always win — that's why we price every match.
FAQ
When is US Open 2026 played and on what surface?
US Open 2026 is played from 31 August → 13 September 2026 on hard, in New York.
Who won US Open?
Champions: Alexander Zverev (men), Elena Rybakina (women).
How does ProbWin predict US Open?
We simulate US Open thousands of times (Monte-Carlo on surface-specific Elo) to estimate each player's title probability, then produce match-by-match winner and total-games probabilities with the value vs the odds. Every pick is timestamped and settled publicly — no marketing win-rate.
Which markets does ProbWin cover for tennis?
Match winner (moneyline) and total games (over/under), with calibrated probabilities and the value vs the odds, match by match on the tennis hub.
Every match, analysed
Our model rates every US Open match (winner + total games), with calibrated probabilities and the value vs the odds.
See the tennis hub →