Free signup + 7 days PRO included Create my account

Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov tennis prediction: AI analysis

ATP · Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinal
C
Carlos Alcaraz
#3
Last 5 WWWWL
VS
04/10/2026
06:00 (Paris)
Hard · BO3
D
Denis Shapovalov
#46
Last 5 LWWLW
Analysis published before kick-off Timestamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Winner Carlos Alcaraz 1.11
Winner Denis Shapovalov 7.50
Total Games 20.0 O 1.92 / U 1.97
Pinnacle odds

Our picks for this match

1 AI pick on this match Model confidence, edge vs market and odds — members only.
Unlock · 7-day free trial

Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

Picks and recommendations

Create a free account to unlock our picks and full analysis.

7-day free trial

CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Le Japan Open se dispute sur dur intérieur rapide à Tokyo, une surface qui favorise les serveurs puissants tout en récompensant la qualité de retour — un terrain où Alcaraz, champion en titre ici, a démontré sa capacité à dicter les échanges. Shapovalov, gaucher au service explosif, cherche à s'affirmer dans les tournois ATP 500 asiatiques où son registre offensif peut s'exprimer pleinement.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

● Carlos Alcaraz : Aucune blessure signalée. Cinq derniers matchs joués à l'issue de sets serrés (dont deux tie-breaks et une prolongation 13-11 dans le troisième).
● Denis Shapovalov : Aucune blessure signalée. Forme récente solide avec cinq victoires consécutives, dont plusieurs acquises en dominant le deuxième et troisième set après avoir lâché le premier.

Full analysis and verdict

Create a free account to unlock our picks and full analysis.

7-day free trial

Player Comparison

1962
Overall Elo 1939
1887
Elo Hard 1842
#3
Ranking #46

Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker ML P1 ML P2 Totals OVER Totals UNDER
Pinnacle (réf.) 1.11 7.50 1.92@20.0 1.97@20.0
Betclic 1.09 6.40 — —
Unibet 1.11 6.50 — —

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

Le vestiaire ProbWin La boutique →
Hoodie « Ça passait laaarge » Tee « Sponsor officiel de mon bookmaker » Mug « Une coupe de champagne » Casquette ProbWin Carnet de Bankroll Tee « Ça passait laaarge » Tee ProbWin logo
Full access to the analysis

Unlock all picks and the full analysis

The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, line-ups, injuries, referee and odds from 11 bookmakers — no commitment.

Trial
7 days
Free
Get started →
No credit card
POPULAR
Day Pass
2,99€
24h access
Unlock today →
No renewal
PRO
19€/mo
All picks
See pricing →
1-click cancel

Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market

Frequently asked questions

When is Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov played?

This tennis game is scheduled for 2026-10-04.

Where can I find a prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for match winner and total games, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our tennis statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

GAMBLING PROHIBITED FOR MINORS. Gambling carries risks: debt, addiction, social isolation. Help & responsible play · BeGambleAware · GamCare: 0808 802 0133 · NCPG Helpline: 1-800-522-4700