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Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen tennis prediction: AI analysis

ATP · Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
C
Carlos Alcaraz
#3
Last 5 WLWWW
VS
01/10/2026
09:00 (Paris)
Hard · BO3
A
Alex Michelsen
#34
Last 5 LWWWW
Analysis published before kick-off Timestamped odds (CLV) Transparent method
Winner Carlos Alcaraz 1.18
Winner Alex Michelsen 4.85
Total Games 20.5 O 1.95 / U 1.92
Pinnacle odds

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CONTEXTE DU MATCH

Le Japan Open se dispute sur dur indoor à Tokyo, surface qui récompense les gros serveurs et pénalise les joueurs dont le retour est l'arme principale. Alcaraz, tenant du titre, affronte un Michelsen en pleine progression qui sort d'un quart de finale à l'US Open, son meilleur résultat en Grand Chelem. C'est un duel entre la domination tout-terrain du numéro un mondial et l'efficacité de service d'un jeune Américain construit pour cette surface.

ABSENCES NOTABLES

● Carlos Alcaraz : Aucune blessure signalée. Ses cinq derniers matchs montrent un bilan solide, avec notamment un passage à travers un troisième set en 13-11 qui témoigne d'une endurance intacte.
● Alex Michelsen : Aucune blessure signalée. Il aborde Tokyo après 23 jours de repos depuis l'US Open, ce qui lui confère une fraîcheur physique notable.

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Player Comparison

1962
Overall Elo 2001
1887
Elo Hard 1968
#3
Ranking #34

Odds Comparison

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker ML P1 ML P2 Totals OVER Totals UNDER
Pinnacle (réf.) 1.18 4.85 1.95@20.5 1.92@20.5
Betclic 1.16 3.90 — —
Unibet 1.17 4.90 — —

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Frequently asked questions

When is Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen played?

This tennis game is scheduled for 2026-10-01.

Where can I find a prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen?

This ProbWin page shows our model's probabilities for match winner and total games, the key stats for both sides and, on game day, a full written analysis. Every prediction is then settled in our public track record.

How are these predictions calculated?

Our tennis statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.

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