Porto vs SSC Napoli prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Porto-SSC Napoli score, Poisson goals model driven by our club ratings — used when current-season indicators are still missing (season start, cups). Model still in testing, not certified against the market. Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
This fixture belongs to the Champions League league phase. Porto beat Estoril 4-0 and GIL Vicente 1-0 in its last five matches. Porto lost 0-1 to PSV Eindhoven and 2-3 to Real Betis over the same stretch. SSC Napoli beat Monza 4-1 and Bodo/Glimt 4-3, drew 3-3 with AS Roma, and lost 0-1 to Venezia and 1-3 to Villarreal in its last five matches.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Double chance 12 (no draw): our lean goes to this line. At 1.31, the price pays our estimate: our probability of 77.1% sits above the implied probability of 76.3%, a thin edge of +0.8 points. The line wins on a Porto or SSC Napoli victory and loses on a draw.
The reference scenario is an open game that gets settled. The market makes Porto the favorite, with a win at 46.8%, against 27.5% for SSC Napoli and 25.7% for the draw. Recent results point toward a game that gets decided: SSC Napoli scored four goals twice, and Porto won 4-0.
No xG figures are provided for this match, and the two clubs come from different leagues. Recent results and the market are the reference points.
The scenario that loses the line is a draw. SSC Napoli drew 3-3 with AS Roma, a score that shows an open game can finish level. We accept this risk because SSC Napoli settled its other recent matches: 4-1 against Monza, 4-3 against Bodo/Glimt, 0-1 against Venezia and 1-3 against Villarreal.
Our lean goes to double chance 12 at 1.31: it is an AI lean, not an official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 Gabriel Mec — Porto · Off the roster
- 🩹 D. Prpic — Porto · Off the roster
- 🩹 V. Sousa — Porto · Leg Injury
- 🩹 William Gomes — Porto · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 O. Pietuszewski — Porto · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 C. Smalling — Porto · Injury
- 🩹 Zaidu — Porto · Injury
- 🩹 Alisson Santos — SSC Napoli · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 B. Badiashile — SSC Napoli · Injury
- 🩹 A. Buongiorno — SSC Napoli · Knee Injury
- 🩹 David Neres — SSC Napoli · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 C. Favasuli — SSC Napoli · Thigh Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
PortoHOM
SSC NapoliAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Porto – SSC Napoli ?
Le match se joue le 04/11/2026 à 21:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Porto – SSC Napoli ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
