Feyenoord vs Inter Milan prediction: AI analysis & odds

GAME CONTEXT

Feyenoord, the host in this league-phase fixture, drew 1-1 at home against For Sittard and 1-1 away at PSV Eindhoven. Feyenoord lost 0-1 away at Real Betis, and won 4-3 away at Telstar and 3-2 at home against Como 1907. Inter Milan, the visitor, won 2-0 away at Venezia FC, 2-1 at home against ACF Fiorentina, 1-0 at home against Shakhtar Donetsk and 3-1 away at Bologna FC. Inter Milan lost 3-4 at home against Club Brugge KV.

1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)

Double chance 12 (no draw): this line wins if either club takes the match and loses only on a draw. The reference odds make Inter Milan the favorite at 1.74, against 4.06 for Feyenoord and 4.37 for the draw. With the margin removed, the market gives 54.7% to Inter Milan, 23.5% to Feyenoord and 21.8% to the draw. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40, so the market sees a fairly open game, and the tables point the same way. Feyenoord scored 4 goals against Telstar and 3 against Como 1907, but also conceded 3 against Telstar and 2 against Como 1907. Inter Milan scored 3 against Bologna FC, 2 against Venezia FC and 3 against Club Brugge KV. The scenario is a game with goals in which one of the two clubs makes the difference, with Inter Milan better placed according to the market. Our probability on this line is 76.8%. The 1.24 price implies 80.6%, an edge of -3.8 points: the price does not pay this scenario. Our model leans to this outcome, but the odds do not make it worthwhile.