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Paris Saint-Germain vs Olympique Lyon prediction: AI analysis & odds

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PARParis Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain
Home
★Follow
Last 5 W W W W W
VS
26/10/2026
Kick-off 20:30 Paris time
OLYOlympique Lyon
Olympique Lyon
Away
★Follow
Last 5 L W W L W
Analysis published before kick-off Time-stamped odds (CLV) Transparent method

Our picks for this match

7 markets analyzed
In this league, 4 verified model reads (market and side) over two test seasons, 2024-25 and 2025-26: the realized rate never fell below the stated probability, within 2 points. Details for members only.
MarketOur readProbabilityOddsStatus
🏆Match result (1X2)
🔒
1 @ 1.43X @ 5.412 @ 6.57
AI Trend
⚽Over/Under 2.5 goals
🔒
+2.5 @ 1.38-2.5 @ 3.14
AI Trend
🛡️Double chance
🔒
—
AI Trend
⚖️Draw no bet (DNB)
🔒
—
AI Trend
🎯Both teams to score
🔒
Yes @ 1.53No @ 2.38
AI Trend
➕Over/Under 1.5 goals
🔒
—
AI Trend
⚽Over/Under 3.5 goals
🔒
—
AI Trend
🔓 Unlock the 7 predictions for this match 7-day free trial · no credit card · verified reads included

How to read: probability = our estimated chances that the scenario happens (stated ≈ realized). "Market" = the probability implied by the odds. Official pick = our probability beats the market's (value detected): it goes into our record. AI trend = a model read, outside the official record; trends on the same match can be played together. A high probability comes with short odds: it lands often but pays little. Odds = best price in our comparator. Every settled trend is published in the trends journal.

Most likely scorelines

Our three most likely scorelines for this match, with their probabilities, are reserved for members.
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Paris Saint-Germain-Olympique Lyon score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →

Our Expert Analysis

AI Analysis

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GAME CONTEXT

Paris Saint-Germain sits 4th in the table. The club has 10 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, with 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Olympique Lyon is 1st, with 8 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Olympique Lyon scores 1.8 goals per match and concedes 0.8.

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Absences

  • 🩹 O. Dembele — Paris Saint-Germain · Thigh Injury
  • 🩹 K. Kvaratskhelia — Paris Saint-Germain · Knee Injury
  • 🩹 Marquinhos — Paris Saint-Germain · Thigh Injury
  • 🩹 N. Mendes — Paris Saint-Germain · Muscle Injury
  • 🩹 A. Longoni — Paris Saint-Germain · Injury
  • 🩹 L. Openda — Olympique Lyon · Leg Injury
  • 🩹 M. Ouedraogo — Olympique Lyon · Knee Injury
  • 🩹 N. Tagliafico — Olympique Lyon · Muscle Injury
  • 🩹 A. Hamdani — Olympique Lyon · Inactive
  • 🩹 P. Sulc — Olympique Lyon · Knee Injury
  • 🩹 K. Nakamura — Olympique Lyon · Red Card
  • 🩹 S. Kango — Olympique Lyon · Injury

Form & Stats

Team Comparison

11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)

Olympique Lyon STAT Paris Saint-Germain
1.86
xG (L5) ? Expected Goals — buts attendus selon la qualité des occasions créées (5 derniers)
2.72
0.89
xGA (L5) ? Expected Goals Against — buts attendus concédés selon la qualité des tirs subis
1.26
2.19
Adj. xG ? Opponent-Strength Adjusted xG — xG ajusté à la force des adversaires rencontrés
3.46
1.8
Goals scored (L5) ? Buts marqués en moyenne sur les 5 derniers matchs
1.8
0.8
Goals conceded (L5) ? Buts concédés en moyenne sur les 5 derniers matchs
1.2
5.4
Shots on target (L5) ? Tirs cadrés par match — proxy d'activité offensive
7.8
1.20
Home / away goals ? Moyenne de buts marqués uniquement à domicile (dom.) ou à l'extérieur (ext.)
2.00
70.0%
Over 2.5 (L10) ? Pourcentage de matchs terminés avec 3+ buts sur les 10 derniers
70.0%
60.0%
BTTS (L10) ? Pourcentage de matchs où les deux équipes ont marqué (10 derniers)
70.0%
30.0%
Clean sheets (L10) ? Pourcentage de matchs sans but encaissé (10 derniers)
30.0%
8
Form (L5) ? Points accumulés sur les 5 derniers matchs (max 15)
10
Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainHOM
Oct. 20, 2026Paris Saint-G… - Barcelona4 - 2W
Oct. 17, 2026RC Strasbourg - Paris Saint-G…1 - 3W
Oct. 14, 2026Manchester Ci… - Paris Saint-G…2 - 4W
Oct. 10, 2026Paris Saint-G… - Le Mans3 - 1W
Sept. 20, 2026Olympique Mar… - Paris Saint-G…1 - 2W
Olympique LyonOlympique LyonAWY
Oct. 22, 20261899 Hoffenhe… - Olympique Lyon3 - 0L
Oct. 18, 2026Olympique Lyon - OGC Nice2 - 1W
Oct. 15, 2026Olympique Lyon - Crystal Palace3 - 2W
Oct. 9, 2026RC Lens - Olympique Lyon2 - 1L
Sept. 19, 2026Olympique Lyon - Stade Rennes4 - 0W

Head-to-Head

19/04/26Paris Saint-Germain — Olympique Lyon1 – 2
09/11/25Olympique Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain2 – 3
23/02/25Olympique Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain2 – 3
15/12/24Paris Saint-Germain — Olympique Lyon3 – 1
25/05/24Olympique Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain1 – 2

Comparer les cotes

Bookmaker 1X2 O 2.5U 2.5 O 1.5U 1.5 O 3.5U 3.5 BTTS yesBTTS no 1X12X2 DNB 1DNB 2
Pinnacle 1.43 5.41 6.57 1.38 3.14 — — 1.99 1.90 — — — — — — —
Bet365 1.42 5.50 6.00 1.36 3.20 1.11 6.50 1.91 1.91 1.53 2.38 1.12 1.14 2.75 1.17 5.00
1xBet 1.46 5.33 6.91 1.40 2.95 1.10 6.04 2.03 1.91 1.53 2.37 1.14 1.19 2.92 — —
William Hill 1.40 4.80 6.00 — — — — — — 1.53 2.50 1.12 1.17 2.80 1.17 4.80
Betfair 1.40 5.50 6.50 1.36 3.10 1.08 7.50 1.90 1.90 1.50 2.50 1.08 1.13 2.88 1.11 5.50
Marathonbet 1.44 5.25 6.80 1.37 2.89 1.08 5.90 1.97 1.85 1.53 2.34 1.12 1.18 2.93 — —
Betano 1.45 5.40 6.60 1.39 3.00 1.12 6.20 1.98 1.87 1.55 2.35 1.14 1.16 2.90 1.18 4.50
BetVictor 1.36 4.80 6.50 1.37 2.80 1.07 7.00 1.88 1.79 1.47 2.45 1.13 1.09 2.80 1.14 5.00
Dafabet 1.45 5.40 6.20 — — — — — — — — — — — — —

Cotes pré-match indicatives — la meilleure cote est en vert.

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Frequently asked questions

Quand se joue Paris Saint-Germain – Olympique Lyon ?

Le match se joue le 26/10/2026 à 20:30 (heure de Paris).

Où trouver un pronostic pour Paris Saint-Germain – Olympique Lyon ?

Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.

Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?

Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.

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