Toulouse FC vs Troyes prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Toulouse FC-Troyes score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Toulouse FC sit 11th in the table and have 6 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Toulouse FC score 1.8 goals per game and concede 1.8 over that stretch. Troyes sit 17th with 3 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Troyes score 0.8 goals per game and concede 2.6 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.67. Our model's baseline scenario: Toulouse FC control the game with 2.01 expected goals, Troyes get one with 1.07, for a total of 3.08. Recent xG created, 2.73 for the two attacks combined, sits above the 2.5 line. Toulouse FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10 matches, Troyes in 40%. Our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay it: the edge is -0.5 points. The probability is verified on this market, which speaks to its reliability, not to an edge over the price.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53. This line loses at 4 goals or more. Paired with over 2.5, it only wins on exactly 3 goals: a narrow outcome, not a central scenario. Troyes concede 2.6 goals per game and Toulouse FC 1.8 over their last 5 matches, which leaves room for a more open game. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.20. With 3.08 expected goals in total, two goals or more is the most common case in our reading. The price does not pay this scenario: the edge is -3.2 points.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.71. Our lean is a Toulouse FC win. The market sees Toulouse FC as favorite and gives the draw 22.8%. The edge is thin (+0.6 points). Some data cuts the other way: Toulouse FC kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their last 10 matches and took 6 points from 15 recently. The xG gap in Toulouse FC's favor is 1.13.
Home draw no bet @ 1.25. The stake is returned on a draw and lost if Toulouse FC lose. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (-5.0 points).
Double chance 1X @ 1.20. Two outcomes out of three: a Toulouse FC win or a draw. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (-3.0 points).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.65. Our model expects 1.07 goals from Troyes, which makes a visiting goal plausible. Troyes failed to score in 57% of their last 10 matches, Toulouse FC in 29%. Our model leans to this reading, but the price does not pay this scenario (-2.2 points).
The scenario that sinks our lean: Toulouse FC have conceded 1.8 goals per game over their last 5 matches and rarely keep a clean sheet, which lets Troyes pull level or snatch a draw. We accept that risk because Troyes score 0.8 goals per game and failed to score in 57% of their last 10 matches.
Our lean is a Toulouse FC win at 1.71, with a thin edge. The other lines are readings without an edge: the price does not pay them.
Absences
- 🩹 M. Niflore — Toulouse FC · Injury
- 🩹 S. Oppong — Toulouse FC · Calf Injury
- 🩹 J. Vignolo — Toulouse FC · Inactive
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Troyes
STAT
Toulouse FC
Toulouse FCHOMTroyesAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Toulouse FC – Troyes ?
Le match se joue le 25/10/2026 à 17:15 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Toulouse FC – Troyes ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
