FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
FC Thun-HNK Hajduk Split score, Poisson goals model driven by our club ratings — used when current-season indicators are still missing (season start, cups). Model still in testing, not certified against the market. Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
GAME CONTEXT
FC Thun host this league-phase fixture. The Swiss side lost 0-1 away to Twente and 2-4 away to FC Zurich, then won 2-1 away at FC Vaduz. At home, FC Thun fell 2-4 to Servette FC and 0-1 to Grasshoppers. HNK Hajduk Split, from the Croatian league, beat NK Varazdin 1-0, Ajax 2-1 and Dinamo Zagreb 2-1, all at home, and lost 0-3 away at HNK Rijeka.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Double chance 12 (no draw): our lean goes to this line at 1.32. It wins if FC Thun or HNK Hajduk Split takes the match and loses only on a draw. Our probability is 78.4% against an implied probability of 75.8%, so the 2.6-point edge is thin. The reference scenario is a match with a winner rather than a split.
The recent results point that way. FC Thun conceded in each of their last five matches, up to four goals against FC Zurich and against Servette FC. HNK Hajduk Split won three straight at home before a heavy defeat at Rijeka. Matches involving these clubs have tended to end decisively.
The market has HNK Hajduk Split as a slight favorite: 39.9% for them, 33.9% for FC Thun, 26.3% for the draw. It puts the Over 2.5 at 59.3%, which suggests a fairly open game and little room for a dull 0-0 or 1-1. To judge our line, the 75.8% implied probability is what matters, not these margin-free numbers.
The scenario that sinks this line is a draw, which the market puts at 26.3%. FC Thun have also kept their opponents to a one-goal margin in three of their last five matches. We accept that risk because none of the last five matches of HNK Hajduk Split or FC Thun ended in a draw.
Our lean goes to double chance 12 (no draw) at 1.32, with a thin edge. It is a read, not a firm bet.
Absences
The referee
Form & Stats
FC ThunHOM
HNK Hajduk SplitAWYHead-to-Head
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, absences, referee stats and the best price from around ten bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue FC Thun – HNK Hajduk Split ?
Le match se joue le 22/10/2026 à 21:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour FC Thun – HNK Hajduk Split ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
