Udinese Calcio vs US Lecce prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Udinese Calcio-US Lecce score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Udinese Calcio scores 1.6 goals per game and concedes 2.2 over its last 5 matches. Udinese Calcio has taken 4 points out of 15 in that stretch. US Lecce scores 1.0 goal per game and concedes 2.0 over its last 5 matches. US Lecce has taken 6 points out of 15 in that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 2.5 goals: our lean is under 2.5 goals at 1.87. Our model expects 1.58 goals from Udinese Calcio and 0.92 from US Lecce, 2.50 in total: a game that stays at 2 goals or fewer. Our probability is 53.8% against an implied 53.5%, so the advantage is thin at 0.3 points. Recent xG created, 2.26 for the two attacks combined, sit under the line and point the same way. On the other side, US Lecce has gone over 2.5 goals in 50% of its last 10 matches, and its defense has conceded 2.0 per game over 5 matches.
Under 3.5 goals: our lean is under 3.5 goals at 1.32. The bet loses at 4 goals. Our 76.9% probability is 1.1 points above the implied 75.8%: a thin advantage. The 2.50 total our model expects leaves room under this line.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to over 1.5 goals at 1.35, but the price does not pay this scenario. Our probability is 73.0% against an implied 74.1%. Paired with under 2.5, this line leaves a single outcome: exactly 2 goals.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Udinese Calcio win: our model leans to the home win at 1.95, but the price does not pay this scenario. Our 50.6% stays below the implied 51.3%. The market also sees Udinese Calcio as favorite; our model gives 29.9% to the draw and 19.5% to US Lecce.
Home draw no bet: our lean is Udinese Calcio with the stake returned on a draw. It is lost on a defeat, even a narrow one. Model probability of 72.2% against 71.9% implied: a thin advantage of 0.3 points.
Double chance 1X: our lean is Udinese Calcio or the draw at 1.26. Two outcomes out of three are covered; only a US Lecce win loses. Our 80.5% is 1.1 points above the implied 79.4%: a thin advantage.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this scenario at 1.91, but the price does not pay it: 50.4% for our probability, 52.4% implied. Combined with under 2.5, it leaves only 1-1. US Lecce failed to score in 50% of its last 10 matches, Udinese Calcio in 30%.
What beats under 2.5 is an open game: Udinese Calcio scores 1.6 goals and concedes 2.2 per game over its last 5 matches. We accept that risk, because Udinese Calcio has gone over 2.5 goals in 40% of its last 10 matches, fewer than half of them.
Our lean is under 2.5 goals at 1.87, with a thin advantage. This is a reading, not a firm bet.
Absences
- 🩹 A. Zanoli — Udinese Calcio · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 V. Bayo — Udinese Calcio · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 I. Gueye — Udinese Calcio · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 J. Piotrowski — Udinese Calcio · Heart Problems
- 🩹 N. Zaniolo — Udinese Calcio · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 J. Abankwah — Udinese Calcio · Injury
- 🩹 M. Berisha — US Lecce · Lacking Match Fitness
- 🩹 N. Stulic — US Lecce · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 I. Ilic — US Lecce · Injury
- 🩹 K. Davis — Udinese Calcio · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Arizala — Udinese Calcio · Thigh Problems
- 🩹 M. Palma — Udinese Calcio · Muscle Bruise
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
US Lecce
STAT
Udinese Calcio
Udinese CalcioHOMUS LecceAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Udinese Calcio – US Lecce ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 12:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Udinese Calcio – US Lecce ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
