Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Sporting Kansas City-Real Salt Lake score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Sporting Kansas City scores 2.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches. Sporting Kansas City concedes 2.0 per game and has 7 points from 15. Real Salt Lake scores 0.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches. Real Salt Lake concedes 1.8 per game and has 3 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: we back under 3.5 goals @ 1.72. Our probability of 67.9% compares with 58.1% for the price: an edge of +9.8 pts. Our model expects 1.79 goals from Sporting Kansas City and 1.43 from Real Salt Lake, 3.21 in total, below the line: an Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Recent xG created, 2.90 for the two attacks combined, stays under the line. Some data cuts against it: Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake each went over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals: our model leans to over 2.5 goals @ 1.50 (62.6%, verified probability, against 66.7%). The price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 win together only on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to over 1.5 goals @ 1.16 (81.4% against 86.2%). The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: our lean is Sporting Kansas City @ 2.90. A value read: our probability stays a minority one (44.3%), but the price overpays this scenario; this is a read, not a recommended bet. It compares with 34.5% for the price, an edge of +9.8 pts. The market sees Real Salt Lake as favorite; our model puts Sporting Kansas City ahead, with 27.0% for the draw. The xG gap (+1.02 for Sporting Kansas City) points the same way.
Home draw no bet: our lean is Sporting Kansas City @ 2.16 (60.6% against 46.3%, edge +14.3 pts). The stake is refunded on a draw and lost on a defeat.
Double chance 12 (no draw): our model leans to this line @ 1.27 (73.0% against 78.7%). It covers two outcomes out of three. The price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line @ 1.40 (63.4%, verified probability, against 71.4%). The price does not pay this scenario. Real Salt Lake failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, which cuts against the line.
The scenario that loses the Under 3.5 is an open game of 4 goals or more: Sporting Kansas City scores 2.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches, and each club went over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches. We accept this risk, because Real Salt Lake scores 0.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.72. Our lean goes to a Sporting Kansas City win and to its draw no bet, with no firm bet; the other lines are not retained.
Absences
- 🩹 O. Blorian — Sporting Kansas City · Chest Injury
- 🩹 Diego Borges — Sporting Kansas City · Groin Injury
- 🩹 L. Johnsen — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 M. Mosquera — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 O. Wolff — Sporting Kansas City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Reynolds — Sporting Kansas City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. J. Arias — Real Salt Lake · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 E. Eneli — Real Salt Lake · Knee Injury
- 🩹 L. Engel — Real Salt Lake · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 J. Glad — Real Salt Lake · Groin Injury
- 🩹 D. Luna — Real Salt Lake · Knee Injury
- 🩹 L. De Fougerolles — Real Salt Lake · Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Real Salt Lake
STAT
Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas CityHOMReal Salt LakeAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Sporting Kansas City – Real Salt Lake ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Sporting Kansas City – Real Salt Lake ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
