Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Seattle Sounders-CF Montreal score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
GAME CONTEXT
Seattle Sounders took 13 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 2.6 goals per match and concedes 1.0 over that stretch. CF Montreal took 3 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 1.0 goal per match and concedes 1.6.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.70: our model expects 2.11 goals from Seattle Sounders and 1.24 from CF Montreal, a total of 3.35, under the line. An under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Some data runs against this read: 60% of each club's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, and Seattle Sounders score 2.6 goals per match. On the other side, recent xG created by the two attacks combined is 2.64, under the line. Our probability of 60.3% sits above the 58.8% implied probability: the edge is thin (+1.5 pts), but the price pays our estimate.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.52: our model leans to this line (65.3%, verified probability), but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 65.8%, edge -0.5 pts). Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals: a narrow outcome, never a central scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.16: our model leans to this line (82.8%), but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 86.2%).
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.53: Seattle Sounders are favorites for the market and for our model, which gives them 56.2% against 23.2% for the draw and 20.5% for CF Montreal. The price still falls short of what our estimate would need: implied probability 65.4%, edge -9.2 pts.
Home draw no bet @ 1.22: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if CF Montreal win. Our model leans to this line (73.3%), but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 82.0%).
Double chance 1X (home or draw) @ 1.17: this line covers two outcomes out of three. Our model leans to it (79.5%), but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 85.5%).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.62: our lean goes to this line (61.9%, verified probability). The edge is thin (+0.2 pts). Seattle Sounders kept a clean sheet in 30% of their last 10 matches and CF Montreal failed to score in 30% of theirs, two data points against this bet. The 1.24 goals our model expects from CF Montreal point the other way.
Seattle Sounders score 2.6 goals per match and CF Montreal concede 1.6: an open game reaching 4 goals would sink the under 3.5. We accept that risk, because CF Montreal score just 1.0 goal per match.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.70. Both teams to score: yes remains a lean; we pass on the other lines, which the price does not pay.
Absences
- 🩹 N. Petkovic — Seattle Sounders · Knee Injury
- 🩹 P. Rothrock — Seattle Sounders · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 P. de La Vega — Seattle Sounders · Calf Injury
- 🩹 B. Ceballos — CF Montreal · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 T. Gillier — CF Montreal · Upper-Body Injury
- 🩹 B. Hidalgo — CF Montreal · Groin Injury
- 🩹 P. Owusu — CF Montreal · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 D. Sealy — CF Montreal · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Morris — Seattle Sounders · Injury
- 🩹 A. Roldan — Seattle Sounders · Injury
- 🩹 B. Vera — CF Montreal · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 J. Ferreira — Seattle Sounders · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
CF Montreal
STAT
Seattle Sounders
Seattle SoundersHOMCF MontrealAWYHead-to-Head
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, absences, referee stats and the best price from around ten bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Seattle Sounders – CF Montreal ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 04:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Seattle Sounders – CF Montreal ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
