San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
San Jose Earthquakes-Nashville SC score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
San Jose Earthquakes scores 2.0 goals per game over its last 5 matches. The club concedes 1.2 per game and has taken 11 points out of 15. Nashville SC scores 2.4 goals per game over the same stretch. It concedes 1.0 per game and has taken 10 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals. Our model expects 1.62 goals from San Jose Earthquakes and 1.70 from Nashville SC, for a total of 3.32. Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals, and that total sits close to the line. Some numbers cut against this scenario: recent xG created, 3.57 for the two attacks added together, is above the 3.5 line. Nashville SC saw 70% of its last 10 matches go past 2.5 goals, San Jose Earthquakes 50%. The 1.67 price pays our estimate (60.1% against a 59.9% implied probability), but the edge is thin: +0.2 pts.
Over 2.5 goals. Our model leans this way, with a verified probability of 64.9%. The 1.53 price implies 65.4%: it does not pay it. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals. Our model gives this scenario 82.7%. The 1.17 price implies 85.5%: it does not pay it.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win. Our model gives 33.6% to San Jose Earthquakes, 29.0% to the draw and 37.3% to Nashville SC. The market also sees Nashville SC as the favorite. At 1.97 the implied probability is 50.8%: the price does not pay this scenario.
Away draw no bet. The stake is returned on a draw and lost if Nashville SC loses. Our 52.6% sits below the 69.0% implied by the 1.45 price: it does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw). This line covers two outcomes out of three and only loses on a draw. Our 71.0% sits below the 79.4% implied by the 1.26 price: it does not pay it.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes. San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC each failed to score in 10% of their last 10 matches. Our verified probability is 65.1%, and the 1.50 price implies 66.7%: it does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more. Nashville SC scores 2.4 goals per game, and recent xG created, 3.57, is above the line. We accept that risk because Nashville SC concedes just 1.0 goal per game over its last 5 matches, which also holds back high scores.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.67, with a thin edge. The other lines in this match remain readings that the price does not pay.
Absences
- 🩹 N. Adimabua — San Jose Earthquakes · Hernia
- 🩹 J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza — San Jose Earthquakes · Injury
- 🩹 D. Johnson — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 D. Jones — San Jose Earthquakes · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 B. Kikanovic — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Skahan — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 N. Tsakiris — San Jose Earthquakes · Upper-Body Injury
- 🩹 O. Presthus — Nashville SC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 F. Camara — Nashville SC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 W. Madrigal — Nashville SC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 C. Espinoza — Nashville SC · Injury
- 🩹 R. Roberts — San Jose Earthquakes · Yellow Cards
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Nashville SC
STAT
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose EarthquakesHOMNashville SCAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 04:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
