Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Osasuna-Racing Santander score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Osasuna took 4 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Osasuna score 0.8 goals per game and concede 2.4 over that stretch. Racing Santander took 6 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Racing Santander score 1.8 goals per game and concede 3.6 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.74: our lean goes to this scenario. Our model expects 1.87 goals from Osasuna and 1.26 from Racing Santander, 3.13 in total. The model probability is 60.9% against 57.5% for the price, so the +3.4-point edge is thin. Racing Santander went past 2.5 goals in 86% of their last 10 matches, Osasuna in 50%. Recent xG created by the two attacks combined comes to 2.42, under the 2.5 line. That diverges from our probability, which stands.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.23: our model leans to this scenario, which wins from 2 goals. The model probability (81.0%) is close to the implied probability (81.3%): the price does not pay this scenario.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.50: our model leans to this line, which loses at 4 goals. Its 65.3% probability was verified over two test seasons in this league, which is neither a guarantee nor an edge over the price. The implied probability is higher (66.7%): the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome. Racing Santander concede 3.6 goals per game, which cuts against this line.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Osasuna win @ 2.06: our lean goes to this scenario. Our model gives Osasuna 50.2%, the draw 25.8% and Racing Santander 24.0%. The implied probability of the price is 48.5%, so the +1.7-point edge is thin. Osasuna took 4 points from 15 against 6 for Racing Santander, and the xG gap (Osasuna minus Racing Santander: -0.26) points the other way. Our probability stands.
Osasuna draw no bet @ 1.47: our model leans to this line. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat. Model probability is 67.7% against 68.0% for the price: it does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 1X @ 1.31: our model leans to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three. Model probability is 76.0% against 76.3%: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.60: our lean goes to this scenario. The model probability is 65.8%, verified over two test seasons in this league, against 62.5% for the price: a +3.3-point edge. Racing Santander kept a clean sheet in 0% of their last 10 matches, Osasuna in 20%. Working the other way, Osasuna failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches.
The scenario that sinks over 2.5 is a silent Osasuna. They failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches and average 0.8 goals per game, which could hold the match to 2 goals or fewer. We accept that risk because Racing Santander score 1.8 goals per game and went past 2.5 goals in 86% of their last 10 matches.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.74: an AI lean, not an official pick. No firm bet, and no staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 K. Barja — Osasuna · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 A. Bonel — Osasuna · Inactive
- 🩹 R. Del Castillo — Osasuna · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Herrando — Osasuna · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 R. Moro — Osasuna · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 A. Oroz — Osasuna · Injury
- 🩹 S. Eriksson — Racing Santander · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 V. Rosier — Osasuna · Hamstring Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Racing Santander
STAT
Osasuna
OsasunaHOMRacing SantanderAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Osasuna – Racing Santander ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 14:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Osasuna – Racing Santander ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
