Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego FC prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Los Angeles Galaxy-San Diego FC score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Los Angeles Galaxy scores 1.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches. The club concedes 2.8 per game and has taken 7 points out of 15. San Diego FC scores 1.6 goals per game over the same stretch. It concedes 3.4 per game and has taken just 2 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals. Our model expects 1.80 goals from Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.63 from San Diego FC, for a total of 3.42. Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals, and that total sits close to the line. Several numbers cut against the lean: San Diego FC concedes 3.4 goals per game. Over its last 10 matches, 80% went past 2.5 goals, against 70% for Los Angeles Galaxy. Recent xG created, 3.11 for the two attacks added together, stays under the 3.5 line. The 1.88 price pays our estimate (58.0% against a 53.2% implied probability, edge +4.8 pts).
Over 2.5 goals. Our model leans this way, with a verified probability of 67.0%. The 1.40 price does not pay it, since the implied probability is 71.4%. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals. Our model puts this scenario at 83.8%. The 1.13 price implies 88.5%: it does not pay it.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win. Our model gives 39.7% to Los Angeles Galaxy, 27.9% to the draw and 32.5% to San Diego FC. The market also sees Los Angeles Galaxy as the favorite. At 2.20 the implied probability is 45.5%: the price does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet. The stake is returned on a draw and lost if Los Angeles Galaxy loses. Our 55.0% sits below the 61.7% implied by the 1.62 price: it does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw). This line covers two outcomes out of three and only loses on a draw. Our probability is 72.1%, while the 1.26 price implies 79.4%: it does not pay it.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes. Los Angeles Galaxy failed to score in 30% of its last 10 matches, San Diego FC in 20%. Neither kept a clean sheet more than one match in five: 0% for Los Angeles Galaxy, 20% for San Diego FC. Our verified probability is 66.7%, and the 1.36 price implies 73.5%: it does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks the lean is an open game with 4 goals or more. San Diego FC concedes 3.4 goals per game, and 80% of its last 10 matches went past 2.5 goals. We accept that risk because San Diego FC scores only 1.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches, which leaves little room for a score that high.
Our lean is under 3.5 goals @ 1.88. The other lines in this match remain readings that the price does not pay.
Absences
- 🩹 I. Parente — Los Angeles Galaxy · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 R. Dalgado — Los Angeles Galaxy · Injury
- 🩹 K. Furuhashi — Los Angeles Galaxy · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 H. Lozano — Los Angeles Galaxy · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 R. Puig — Los Angeles Galaxy · Knee Injury
- 🩹 O. Soe — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 Joao Klauss — Los Angeles Galaxy · Injury
- 🩹 Gabriel Pirani — San Diego FC · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 A. Pellegrino — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 S. Vines — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
San Diego FC
STAT
Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles GalaxyHOMSan Diego FCAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Los Angeles Galaxy – San Diego FC ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 04:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Los Angeles Galaxy – San Diego FC ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
