Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Houston Dynamo-FC Dallas score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Houston Dynamo scores 1.2 goals per game over its last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo concedes 1.6 per game and has 5 points from 15. FC Dallas scores 1.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches. FC Dallas concedes 1.0 per game and has 10 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals: our lean is over 2.5 goals @ 1.82. Our probability of 62.5% (verified probability) compares with 54.9% for the price: an edge of +7.6 pts. Our model expects 1.69 goals from Houston Dynamo and 1.52 from FC Dallas, 3.21 in total. Recent xG created, 3.06 for the two attacks combined, points the same way. One data point cuts against it: Houston Dynamo went over 2.5 goals in 40% of its last 10 matches, FC Dallas in 80%.
Over 1.5 goals: our lean is over 1.5 goals @ 1.27 (81.4% against 78.7% for the price, edge +2.7 pts). This line wins with 2 goals or more.
Under 3.5 goals: our model leans to under 3.5 goals @ 1.42 (62.2% against 70.4%). The price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 win together only on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: our model leans to Houston Dynamo @ 2.23: 39.5% for Houston Dynamo, 28.1% for the draw, 32.4% for FC Dallas. The price implies 44.8%: it does not pay this scenario. The market sees Houston Dynamo as favorite. The xG gap (-0.76 for Houston Dynamo) points the other way; the model probability is what counts.
Home draw no bet: our model leans to Houston Dynamo @ 1.57 (55.0% against 63.7%). The stake is refunded on a draw and lost on a defeat. The price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw): our model leans to this line @ 1.30 (71.9%, verified probability, against 76.9%). It covers two outcomes out of three. The price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our lean is this line @ 1.62 (63.9%, verified probability, against 61.7% for the price, edge +2.2 pts). Houston Dynamo failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, FC Dallas in 20%: that data cuts against the line.
The scenario that loses Over 2.5 is a closed game: Houston Dynamo failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches and went over 2.5 goals in only 40% of them. We accept this risk, because Houston Dynamo concedes 1.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches.
Our lean is over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, with no firm bet. Over 1.5 goals and both teams to score: yes remain leans; the other lines are not retained.
Absences
- 🩹 Felipe Andrade — Houston Dynamo · Injury
- 🩹 J. Maurer — Houston Dynamo · Concussion
- 🩹 A. Resch — Houston Dynamo · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 L. Farrington — FC Dallas · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. A. Julio Santos — FC Dallas · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 Geovane Jesus — FC Dallas · Knee Injury
- 🩹 L. Ennali — Houston Dynamo · Injury
- 🩹 H. Herrera — Houston Dynamo · Red Card
- 🩹 Daniel — FC Dallas · Leg Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
FC Dallas
STAT
Houston Dynamo
Houston DynamoHOMFC DallasAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Houston Dynamo – FC Dallas ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Houston Dynamo – FC Dallas ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
