FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
FC Cincinnati-Columbus Crew score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
FC Cincinnati took 5 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 1.8 goals per match and concedes 2.8 over that stretch. Columbus Crew took 6 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 1.4 goals per match and concedes 1.4.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.94: our lean goes to this line, which loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.94 goals from FC Cincinnati and 1.59 from Columbus Crew, a total of 3.52, right next to the line. Most of the data runs against this scenario: 80% of each club's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, and recent xG created by the two attacks combined is 3.81, above the line. Those xG diverge from our 56.2% probability: the model probability prevails. Against the 51.5% implied probability, the edge is +4.7 pts and the price pays our estimate.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.39: our model leans to this line (68.8%, verified probability), but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 71.9%, edge -3.1 pts). Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals: a narrow outcome, never a central scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.12: our model leans to this line (84.7%), but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 89.3%).
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.22: our model gives FC Cincinnati 43.7%, the draw 26.9% and Columbus Crew 29.4%. The price does not pay this scenario: implied probability 45.0%, edge -1.3 pts.
Home draw no bet @ 1.67: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if Columbus Crew win. Our model leans to this line (59.8%), but the price does not pay this scenario: the 59.9% implied probability is close.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: this line wins if either club takes the match and loses on a draw. Our model leans to it (73.1%), but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 80.0%).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.35: our model leans to this line (67.6%, verified probability). FC Cincinnati failed to score in 20% of their last 10 matches and Columbus Crew in 10% of theirs. The price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 74.1%, edge -6.5 pts).
FC Cincinnati concede 2.8 goals per match: an open game with 4 goals or more would sink the under 3.5. We accept that risk, because Columbus Crew score 1.4 goals per match.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.94, a read rather than a firm bet. We pass on the other lines, which the price does not pay.
Absences
- 🩹 J. Martinez — FC Cincinnati · Knee Injury
- 🩹 M. Robinson — FC Cincinnati · Injury
- 🩹 O. Nwobodo — FC Cincinnati · Injury
- 🩹 W. Abou Ali — Columbus Crew · Knee Injury
- 🩹 R. Camacho — Columbus Crew · Chest Injury
- 🩹 Evander — FC Cincinnati · Leg Injury
- 🩹 E. Echenique — FC Cincinnati · Inactive
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Columbus Crew
STAT
FC Cincinnati
FC CincinnatiHOMColumbus CrewAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue FC Cincinnati – Columbus Crew ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 23:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour FC Cincinnati – Columbus Crew ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
