Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Celta Vigo-Alaves score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Celta Vigo took 6 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Celta Vigo score 1.4 goals per game and concede 0.8 over that stretch. Alaves took 7 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Alaves score 1.4 goals per game and concede 1.0 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.25: our lean goes to this scenario, which loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.42 goals from Celta Vigo and 0.95 from Alaves, 2.36 in total. The model probability is 80.3% against 80.0% for the price, so the +0.3-point edge is thin. Recent xG created by the two attacks combined comes to 2.27, which points the same way. Alaves went past 2.5 goals in 40% of their last 10 matches, Celta Vigo in 30%: that is what could trouble this line.
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.72: our model leans to this scenario. The model probability (57.6%) is close to the implied probability (58.1%): the price does not pay this scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.42: our model leans to this scenario, which wins from 2 goals. Its 68.8% probability was verified over two test seasons in this league, which is neither a guarantee nor an edge over the price. The implied probability is higher (70.4%): the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Celta Vigo win @ 2.18: our lean goes to this scenario. Our model gives Celta Vigo 46.8%, the draw 29.3% and Alaves 24.0%. Value bet: our probability stays a minority one (46.8%), but the price overpays this scenario, with a thin edge of +0.9 points. It is a read, not a recommended bet. The xG gap (Celta Vigo minus Alaves: 0.23) points the same way. Alaves did take 7 points from 15 against 6 for Celta Vigo.
Celta Vigo draw no bet @ 1.50: our model leans to this line. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat. Model probability is 66.1% against 66.7% for the price: it does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 1X @ 1.31: our model leans to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three. Model probability is 76.0% against 76.3%: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.95: our model leans to this scenario, with a probability of 51.0% against 51.3% for the price: it does not pay this scenario. Alaves kept a clean sheet in 50% of their last 10 matches, Celta Vigo in 40%, which cuts against this read.
The scenario that sinks a Celta Vigo win is a silent attack. Celta Vigo failed to score in 30% of their last 10 matches, and Alaves kept a clean sheet in 50% of theirs. We accept that risk because Celta Vigo score 1.4 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Our lean goes to a Celta Vigo win @ 2.18: an AI lean, not an official pick. No firm bet, and no staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 P. Duran — Celta Vigo · Calf Injury
- 🩹 J. El Abdellaoui — Celta Vigo · Knee Injury
- 🩹 B. Iglesias — Celta Vigo · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. Roman — Celta Vigo · Knee Injury
- 🩹 C. Starfelt — Celta Vigo · Injury
- 🩹 F. Garces — Alaves · Suspended
- 🩹 A. Perez — Alaves · Red Card
- 🩹 M. Rodriguez — Alaves · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 A. Antanon — Celta Vigo · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 S. Caceres — Celta Vigo · Injury
- 🩹 V. Koski — Alaves · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Alaves
STAT
Celta Vigo
Celta VigoHOMAlavesAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Celta Vigo – Alaves ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 16:15 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Celta Vigo – Alaves ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
