Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Borussia Monchengladbach-TSG Hoffenheim score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Borussia Monchengladbach sit 18th in the table. Borussia Monchengladbach score 2.0 goals per game and concede 3.2 over their last 5 matches, for 3 points out of 15. TSG Hoffenheim sit 17th. TSG Hoffenheim score 1.4 goals per game and concede 2.8 over their last 5 matches, for 3 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.42: our model expects 1.66 goals from Borussia Monchengladbach and 2.16 from TSG Hoffenheim, 3.82 in total, so an open game is the reference scenario. Recent xG created by the two attacks added together reaches 3.30, above the line. Borussia Monchengladbach went over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 10 matches, TSG Hoffenheim in 90%. One point cuts against this read: Borussia Monchengladbach failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches. The analysis points to Over 2.5, and the price pays our estimate.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.13: the line needs only two goals. The price pays our estimate. Borussia Monchengladbach concede 3.2 goals per game over the last 5 matches, TSG Hoffenheim 2.8.
Over 3.5 goals @ 2.07: the line needs four goals. Our lean goes to it, because the price pays our estimate, which sits close to one half. Recent xG created (3.30) stays under this line and so diverges from our model, whose probability takes precedence.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away draw no bet @ 1.60: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if TSG Hoffenheim lose. Our model gives Borussia Monchengladbach 27.6%, the draw 25.3% and TSG Hoffenheim 47.1%. The market also sees TSG Hoffenheim as the favorite. Our lean goes to this line, with a thin edge.
Away win @ 2.12: our model leans to TSG Hoffenheim, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.27: it covers two outcomes out of three, the two wins. Our model leans to it, but the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.40: TSG Hoffenheim have never failed to score in their last 10 matches (0%). Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks Over 2.5 is a tight game of two goals or fewer. Borussia Monchengladbach failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches. We accept this risk, because Borussia Monchengladbach concede 3.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.42. This is not an official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 F. Fleck — Borussia Monchengladbach · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Leszczynski — Borussia Monchengladbach · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Castrop — Borussia Monchengladbach · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 F. Honorat — Borussia Monchengladbach · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 N. Kuhn — Borussia Monchengladbach · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 E. Leopold — Borussia Monchengladbach · Knee Injury
- 🩹 K. Itakura — Borussia Monchengladbach · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 T. Kleindienst — Borussia Monchengladbach · Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
TSG Hoffenheim
STAT
Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia MonchengladbachHOMTSG HoffenheimAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Borussia Monchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 17:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Borussia Monchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
