Austin FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Austin FC-Vancouver Whitecaps score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Austin FC scores 1.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches. Austin FC concedes 1.8 per game and has 6 points from 15. Vancouver Whitecaps scores 1.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps concedes 1.8 per game and has 5 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: we back under 3.5 goals @ 1.70. Our probability of 59.8% sits above the price's 58.8%: the edge is thin, +1.0 point. Our model expects 1.58 goals from Austin FC and 1.63 from Vancouver Whitecaps, 3.21 in total, below the line: an Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Recent xG created, 2.92 for the two attacks combined, also sits under the line. Some data cuts the other way: Vancouver Whitecaps went over 2.5 goals in 80% of its last 10 matches, Austin FC in 60%.
Over 2.5 goals: our model leans to over 2.5 goals @ 1.50, with a probability of 62.6% (verified probability) against 66.7% for the price. The price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 win together only on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to over 1.5 goals @ 1.16 (81.4% against 86.2% for the price). The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win: our model leans to Vancouver Whitecaps @ 1.64: 36.5% for Vancouver Whitecaps, 34.5% for Austin FC, 29.0% for the draw. The price implies 61.0%: it does not pay this scenario. The market sees Vancouver Whitecaps as favorite. The xG gap (-1.10 for Austin FC) points the same way, but the model probability is what counts.
Away draw no bet: our model leans to Vancouver Whitecaps @ 1.27 (51.4% against 78.7%). The stake is refunded on a draw and lost on a defeat. The price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw): our model leans to this line @ 1.22 (71.0% against 82.0%). It covers two outcomes out of three, a win for either club. The price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line @ 1.53 (63.8%, verified probability, against 65.4% for the price). The price does not pay this scenario. Austin FC failed to score in 10% of its last 10 matches, and so did Vancouver Whitecaps.
The scenario that loses the Under 3.5 is an open game of 4 goals or more: Vancouver Whitecaps went over 2.5 goals in 80% of its last 10 matches, scores 1.8 goals and concedes 1.8 per game. This is the weak point of this read.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.70. On the other lines our model leans their way, but the price does not pay those scenarios: we are not playing them.
Absences
- 🩹 Z. Kolmanic — Austin FC · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 M. Desler — Austin FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 S. Adekugbe — Vancouver Whitecaps · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Badwal — Vancouver Whitecaps · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 K. G. Cabrera Nakamura — Vancouver Whitecaps · Foot Injury
- 🩹 B. Halbouni — Vancouver Whitecaps · Knee Injury
- 🩹 T. Muller — Vancouver Whitecaps · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 T. Blackmon — Vancouver Whitecaps · Red Card
- 🩹 J. Rosales — Austin FC · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 P. Placheta — Austin FC · Lower-Body Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Vancouver Whitecaps
STAT
Austin FC
Austin FCHOMVancouver WhitecapsAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Austin FC – Vancouver Whitecaps ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Austin FC – Vancouver Whitecaps ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
