Werder Bremen vs Paderborn prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Werder Bremen-Paderborn score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Werder Bremen sit 7th in the table. The club scores 1.6 goals and concedes 2.0 per game over its last 5 matches, for 7 points out of 15. Paderborn sit 15th. The club scores 1.0 goal and concedes 1.2 per game over its last 5 matches, for 7 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.57: our lean goes to this scenario. Our model expects 2.18 goals from Werder Bremen and 1.35 from Paderborn, 3.52 in total. Werder Bremen have seen more than 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 10 matches, Paderborn in 50%. Recent xG created, 1.85 combined, sit below the line: they diverge from our model, whose probability prevails. Our 68.5% probability is verified over two test seasons in this league: it is proof of reliability, not a guarantee and not an edge over the price. Against 63.7% implied, the edge is +4.8 pts.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.18: our lean goes to this line, which loses at 0 or 1 goal. Our probability is 88.2% against 84.7% implied, an edge of +3.5 pts. Werder Bremen concede 2.0 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.66: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (53.8% against 60.2% implied). It loses at 4 goals or more, and the expected total of 3.52 is above that limit. Paired with over 2.5, it only wins on exactly 3 goals: a narrow outcome, not a central scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.84: our lean goes to Werder Bremen. Our model gives Werder Bremen 54.8%, the draw 23.9% and Paderborn 21.4%. The market also sees Werder Bremen as favorites. The line's probability, 54.7% against 54.3% implied, gives a thin edge (+0.4 pts).
Home draw no bet @ 1.36: our model leans to Werder Bremen, but the price does not pay this scenario (71.9% against 73.5% implied). The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Paderborn win.
Double chance 1X (home or draw) @ 1.27: our model leans to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three, but the price does not pay this scenario (78.6% against 78.7% implied).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.55: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (64.1% against 64.5% implied). Paderborn failed to score in 80% of their last 10 matches, Werder Bremen in 0% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks over 2.5 is a tight game in which Paderborn do not score: the club failed to score in 80% of its last 10 matches and scores 1.0 goal per game over the last 5. Recent xG created, 1.85 combined, point the same way. We accept that risk, because Werder Bremen concede 2.0 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.57, with a Werder Bremen win as our read of the 1X2. These are leans, not firm bets, with no staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 F. Agu — Werder Bremen · Calf Injury
- 🩹 S. Alvero — Werder Bremen · Calf Injury
- 🩹 S. Lynen — Werder Bremen · Hip Injury
- 🩹 S. Musah — Werder Bremen · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. N'Diaye — Werder Bremen · Groin Injury
- 🩹 J. Njinmah — Werder Bremen · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 J. Stage — Werder Bremen · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 K. Topp — Werder Bremen · Knee Injury
- 🩹 A. Pieper — Werder Bremen · Injury
- 🩹 Y. Regeer — Werder Bremen · Back Injury
- 🩹 K. Hein — Werder Bremen · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 N. Stark — Werder Bremen · Hip Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Paderborn
STAT
Werder Bremen
Werder BremenHOMPaderbornAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Werder Bremen – Paderborn ?
Le match se joue le 17/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Werder Bremen – Paderborn ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
