Villarreal vs Elche CF prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Villarreal-Elche CF score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Villarreal has 6 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes 1.6 in that run. Elche CF has 4 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 2.0 goals per game and concedes 2.2 in that run.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.50: our model expects 2.57 goals from Villarreal and 0.91 from Elche CF, 3.48 in total, above the line. Our lean is the over, with a slim edge. The two attacks have created 3.76 xG recently, which points the same way. Villarreal went past 2.5 goals in 80% of its last 10 matches, Elche CF in 60%.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.75: this bet loses at 4 goals. Our lean is the under, with a slim edge. Our model's expected goals, 3.48, sit close to the line, while the recent 3.76 xG goes above it: the model probability stands, and the under remains a narrow outcome. Paired with over 2.5, it only wins on exactly 3 goals, which is not a central scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.16: our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.51: our model gives Villarreal 73.0%, the draw 15.8% and Elche CF 11.2%. Our lean is a Villarreal win, with an edge of 6.8 points. The market also sees Villarreal as the favorite. The recent xG gap, 1.06 for Villarreal, points the same way.
Home draw no bet @ 1.17: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if Elche CF wins. Our lean is Villarreal, with an edge of 1.3 points.
Double chance 1X @ 1.14: this covers a Villarreal win and the draw. Our lean backs it, with an edge of 1.2 points.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.62: our lean is yes, with an edge of 2.3 points. Villarreal failed to score in 20% of its last 10 matches, Elche CF in 10%. Elche CF kept a clean sheet in 10% of its last 10 matches, Villarreal in 0%.
Villarreal has only 6 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, and Elche CF scores 2.0 goals per game in that run: a draw or a home defeat is possible. That is the weak point of this reading.
Our lean is a Villarreal home win at 1.51. It is a lean, not a firm bet: no line in this match is an official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 T. Buchanan — Villarreal · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 N. Pepe — Villarreal · Eye injury
- 🩹 Y. Santiago — Elche CF · Knee Injury
- 🩹 Buba Sangare — Elche CF · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 P. Gulacsi — Villarreal · Personal Reasons
- 🩹 F. Redondo Solari — Elche CF · Red Card
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Elche CF
STAT
Villarreal
VillarrealHOMElche CFAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Villarreal – Elche CF ?
Le match se joue le 17/10/2026 à 16:15 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Villarreal – Elche CF ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
