Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Union Berlin-Borussia Dortmund score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
GAME CONTEXT
Union Berlin sit 16th in the table. The club scores 1.6 goals and concedes 3.4 per game over its last 5 matches, for 4 points out of 15. Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd and have 15 points out of 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 2.2 goals and concedes 0.4 per game over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.52: our lean goes to this scenario. Our model expects 1.14 goals from Union Berlin and 2.30 from Borussia Dortmund, 3.44 in total. Recent xG created, 3.39 combined, sit above the line. Union Berlin have seen more than 2.5 goals in 100% of their last 10 matches, Borussia Dortmund in 50%. Our 66.9% probability is verified over two test seasons in this league: it is proof of reliability, not a guarantee and not an edge over the price. Against a 65.8% implied probability, the edge is thin (+1.1 pts).
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.16: our lean goes to this line, which loses at 0 or 1 goal. Our probability is 86.6% against 86.2% implied, a thin edge (+0.4 pts). Union Berlin concede 3.4 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.71: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (53.9% against 58.5% implied). It loses at 4 goals or more, and the expected total of 3.44 sits close to that limit. Paired with over 2.5, it only wins on exactly 3 goals: a narrow outcome, not a central scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win @ 1.68: our lean goes to Borussia Dortmund. Our model gives Borussia Dortmund 61.4%, the draw 23.0% and Union Berlin 15.6%. The market also sees Borussia Dortmund as favorites. Against 59.5% implied, the edge is thin (+1.9 pts). Borussia Dortmund failed to score in 0% of their last 10 matches.
Double chance X2 (draw or away) @ 1.21: our lean goes to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three. Our probability is 84.4% against 82.6% implied, a thin edge (+1.8 pts).
Away draw no bet @ 1.25: our model leans to Borussia Dortmund, but the price does not pay this scenario (79.8% against 80.0% implied). The stake is returned on a draw and lost on an Union Berlin win.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.55: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (62.6% against 64.5% implied). Union Berlin failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches, while Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 50% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks over 2.5 is a clean Borussia Dortmund win at 2-0: the club kept a clean sheet in 50% of its last 10 matches and concedes 0.4 per game over the last 5. Union Berlin failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches. We accept that risk, because Union Berlin have seen more than 2.5 goals in 100% of their last 10 matches.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.52, with a Borussia Dortmund win as our read of the 1X2. These are leans, not firm bets, with no staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 A. Ilic — Union Berlin · Illness
- 🩹 J. Juranovic — Union Berlin · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 A. Markgraf — Union Berlin · Knee Injury
- 🩹 S. Nsoki — Union Berlin · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 E. Latte Lath — Union Berlin · Inactive
- 🩹 E. Can — Borussia Dortmund · Knee Injury
- 🩹 G. Konstantelias — Borussia Dortmund · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Lerma — Borussia Dortmund · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. Friedrich — Union Berlin · Knock
- 🩹 O. Burke — Union Berlin · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 M. Kaba — Borussia Dortmund · Injury
- 🩹 F. Mane — Borussia Dortmund · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Borussia Dortmund
STAT
Union Berlin
Union BerlinHOMBorussia DortmundAWYHead-to-Head
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, absences, referee stats and the best price from around ten bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund ?
Le match se joue le 17/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
