Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Schalke 04-Mainz 05 score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Schalke 04 sit 13th in the table. Schalke 04 took 5 points from 15 over their last 5 matches, scoring 1.0 goal and conceding 1.6 per game. Mainz 05 are 8th. Mainz 05 took 10 points from 15 over their last 5 matches, scoring 2.4 goals and conceding 1.2 per game.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals: our lean goes to this line. Our model expects 3.08 goals in total, 1.39 for Schalke 04 and 1.69 for Mainz 05. The tables point the same way: 80% of Schalke 04's last 10 matches and 60% of Mainz 05's went over 2.5 goals, and the recent xG created by the two attacks added together reach 3.87. The probability is verified over two test seasons in this league: that is evidence the probability is reliable, not an edge over the price. The 1.70 price pays our estimate, with a thin edge of +1.2 pts.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to this line, but the 1.20 price does not pay this scenario, as the 82.5% model probability sits below the 83.3% implied.
Under 3.5 goals: our model leans to this line, but the 1.55 price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome against 3.08 expected goals.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Mainz 05 draw no bet: our lean goes to this line. Our model gives Mainz 05 41.4%, the draw 30.8% and Schalke 04 27.9%. A draw returns the stake; a Mainz 05 defeat loses it. The 1.73 price pays our estimate, an edge of +1.9 pts.
Double chance X2: our lean goes to this line, which covers the draw and a Mainz 05 win, two outcomes out of three. The probability is verified over two test seasons, which is not an edge over the price. At 1.42, the price pays our estimate by +1.7 pts.
Mainz 05 win: our model leans to this outcome, but the 2.34 price does not pay this scenario (-1.3 pts).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line, but the 1.53 price does not pay this scenario (-2.2 pts). Schalke 04 failed to score in 60% of their last 10 matches, Mainz 05 in 20%.
The scenario that sinks Over 2.5 is a closed game: Schalke 04 failed to score in 60% of their last 10 matches. We accept this risk, because 80% of their last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.70. On the result, our lean goes to Mainz 05 draw no bet @ 1.73, with no official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 D. Kohr — Mainz 05 · Foot Injury
- 🩹 O. Ruoppi — Mainz 05 · Knee Injury
- 🩹 Silas — Mainz 05 · Broken shinbone
- 🩹 R. Zentner — Mainz 05 · Hand Injury
- 🩹 P. Nebel — Mainz 05 · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 S. Widmer — Mainz 05 · Knee Injury
- 🩹 M. Sylla — Schalke 04 · Leg Injury
- 🩹 P. Mwene — Mainz 05 · Head Injury
- 🩹 D. Ljubicic — Schalke 04 · Knee Injury
- 🩹 T. Becker — Schalke 04 · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 A. Caci — Mainz 05 · Face Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Mainz 05
STAT
Schalke 04
Schalke 04HOMMainz 05AWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Schalke 04 – Mainz 05 ?
Le match se joue le 17/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Schalke 04 – Mainz 05 ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
