Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Philadelphia Union-Charlotte score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Philadelphia Union has taken 15 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union scores 4.0 goals per game and concedes 1.0 over that stretch. Charlotte has taken 8 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Charlotte scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.2.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.91: our model projects 2.06 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.43 for Charlotte, 3.49 in total. That is an open game that still lands just under the line. Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Some data cuts against this read: recent xG created by the two attacks added together reaches 3.73, above the line, and 80% of Philadelphia Union's last 10 matches and 70% of Charlotte's went over 2.5 goals. The model probability carries the call here. Our lean goes to this line because the price pays it.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.38: this scenario fits our model's expected goals, and it gives 68.0% (verified probability). Over 2.5 and under 3.5 cash together only on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome. Our model leans to over 2.5, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.12: two goals are enough, and our model gives 84.2%. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.57: our model gives Philadelphia Union 50.4%, the draw 24.9% and Charlotte 24.6%. The market also sees Philadelphia Union as the favorite. Our model leans to the home win, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet @ 1.25: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if Charlotte wins. Our model gives 67.2%, and the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 1X @ 1.18: two outcomes out of three, a Philadelphia Union win or a draw. Our model gives 75.4%, and the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.45: Charlotte scores 1.4 goals per game and failed to score in 20% of its last 10 matches. Philadelphia Union has scored in every one of its last 10. Our model gives 65.8% (verified probability); it leans to yes, but the price does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks the under 3.5: Philadelphia Union scores 4.0 goals per game over its last 5 matches and goes over 2.5 goals in 80% of its last 10. One match like that clears 3.5. We accept this risk because Philadelphia Union concedes only 1.0 goal per game over that stretch, and Charlotte scores 1.4 goals per game.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.91, a read and not a firm bet. The other lines remain leans that the price does not pay.
Absences
- 🩹 A. Anello — Philadelphia Union · Groin Injury
- 🩹 N. Berchimas — Charlotte · Foot Injury
- 🩹 A. Doucoure — Charlotte · Inactive
- 🩹 A. Goodwin — Charlotte · Foot Injury
- 🩹 A. John — Charlotte · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 J. Bueno — Philadelphia Union · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 T. Ream — Charlotte · Red Card
- 🩹 B. Bronico — Charlotte · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Sery Larsen — Philadelphia Union · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 P. Ndinga — Philadelphia Union · Hamstring Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Charlotte
STAT
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia UnionHOMCharlotteAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Philadelphia Union – Charlotte ?
Le match se joue le 17/10/2026 à 20:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Philadelphia Union – Charlotte ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
